04-11-2021, 09:11 AM
Perfect Macro Top Bitcoin Sell Signal About To Flash - Pi Cycle Top Indicator
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Indicator Overview</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/">Pi Cycle Top Indicator</a> (warning - terrible on mobile) has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days. It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.</p> <p>Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.</p> <p>For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.</p> <p>It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.</p> <p>It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.</p> <p>IMO, indicators like these are likely to be only coincidental, although, it’s past accuracy warrants it’s significance. It must be taken into account as well as all previous tops have been blow off tops rather than an Elliott wave ending diagonal (if bitcoin is topping right now). This discrepancy may reduce its accuracy.</p> <p>However, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DAn0UXkz-Bitcoin-close-to-Macro-Top/">my own personal amateur TA</a> seems to share a bearish stance. (Note- TA is from early February but trend lines have not been broken so it is still relevant) <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/">Sentiment</a> also seems to be in the ballpark of previous macro tops. </p> <p>Having said this, I am only an amateur and i wouldn’t put much stock into my opinion. It is most likely flawed and history has shown it is incredibly hard to predict the pops of bubbles. I could easily see bitcoin exploding to 100k next week. I would not be surprised at all. I am just urging cautiousness, please be sure to set stop losses.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/FractalsSourceCode"> /u/FractalsSourceCode </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/mok9ot/perfect_macro_top_bitcoin_sell_signal_about_to/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/mok9ot/perfect_macro_top_bitcoin_sell_signal_about_to/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Indicator Overview</p> <p>The <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/">Pi Cycle Top Indicator</a> (warning - terrible on mobile) has historically been effective in picking out the timing of market cycle highs to within 3 days. It uses the 111 day moving average (111DMA) and a newly created multiple of the 350 day moving average, the 350DMA x 2.</p> <p>Note: The multiple is of the price values of the 350DMA not the number of days.</p> <p>For the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moves up and crosses the 350DMA x 2 we see that it coincides with the price of Bitcoin peaking.</p> <p>It is also interesting to note that 350 / 111 is 3.153, which is very close to Pi = 3.142. In fact, it is the closest we can get to Pi when dividing 350 by another whole number.</p> <p>It once again demonstrates the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action over long time frames. Though in this instance it does so with a high degree of accuracy over the past 7 years.</p> <p>IMO, indicators like these are likely to be only coincidental, although, it’s past accuracy warrants it’s significance. It must be taken into account as well as all previous tops have been blow off tops rather than an Elliott wave ending diagonal (if bitcoin is topping right now). This discrepancy may reduce its accuracy.</p> <p>However, <a href="https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/DAn0UXkz-Bitcoin-close-to-Macro-Top/">my own personal amateur TA</a> seems to share a bearish stance. (Note- TA is from early February but trend lines have not been broken so it is still relevant) <a href="https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/relative-unrealized-profit--loss/">Sentiment</a> also seems to be in the ballpark of previous macro tops. </p> <p>Having said this, I am only an amateur and i wouldn’t put much stock into my opinion. It is most likely flawed and history has shown it is incredibly hard to predict the pops of bubbles. I could easily see bitcoin exploding to 100k next week. I would not be surprised at all. I am just urging cautiousness, please be sure to set stop losses.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/FractalsSourceCode"> /u/FractalsSourceCode </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/mok9ot/perfect_macro_top_bitcoin_sell_signal_about_to/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/mok9ot/perfect_macro_top_bitcoin_sell_signal_about_to/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R