09-26-2021, 12:02 PM
Reminder: Outlandish predictions for crypto prices ($100k, $300k, $500k Bitcoin etc)
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Using existing data, you can create a model that fits just about any chart for anything and then claim to be able to use it to show future progression.</p> <p>There has been famous studies showing that just about any correlation can be found if you have a wide enough set of data. One famous case was a completely astounding 99% correlation between butter prices in Bangladesh and the S&P500. This occurred over many decades!</p> <p>When you add manufactured rules and models in to the equation the potential for coming up with a model that can 'predict' anything is limited only by the creativity of the statistician designing it.</p> <p>Then add on to this the financial incentive for publishing such models and you have a recipe for massive amounts of bullshit and noise being spread - as we can see.</p> <p>Remember to take all predictions with a healthy dose of scepticism and that the ONLY people who know shit about fuck are the ones manipulating the system to begin with.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Wargizmo"> /u/Wargizmo </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pvke7v/reminder_outlandish_predictions_for_crypto_prices/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pvke7v/reminder_outlandish_predictions_for_crypto_prices/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Using existing data, you can create a model that fits just about any chart for anything and then claim to be able to use it to show future progression.</p> <p>There has been famous studies showing that just about any correlation can be found if you have a wide enough set of data. One famous case was a completely astounding 99% correlation between butter prices in Bangladesh and the S&P500. This occurred over many decades!</p> <p>When you add manufactured rules and models in to the equation the potential for coming up with a model that can 'predict' anything is limited only by the creativity of the statistician designing it.</p> <p>Then add on to this the financial incentive for publishing such models and you have a recipe for massive amounts of bullshit and noise being spread - as we can see.</p> <p>Remember to take all predictions with a healthy dose of scepticism and that the ONLY people who know shit about fuck are the ones manipulating the system to begin with.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Wargizmo"> /u/Wargizmo </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pvke7v/reminder_outlandish_predictions_for_crypto_prices/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/pvke7v/reminder_outlandish_predictions_for_crypto_prices/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R