11-14-2021, 07:47 AM
Is 2030 the best time to sell tesla? - Analysis of its Production Capacity Growth
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Many say they will sell their Tesla shares in 2030, the logic behind this is that in 2030 Tesla will reach maturity like Amazon, Apple and grow at a slower rate (10-30% yoy) so for them whatever price the stock reaches doesn't matter to them, only the year "2030".</p> <p>But is 2030 the best time to sell? Will Tesla yoy growth justify its stock growth?</p> <p>Tesla doesn't have a demand problem cause it sells every car it makes, so their main problem is their supply capacity.</p> <p>So this analysys is based on the Utopia principle that Tesla will have enough demand until 2030 and that it will grow at a 40% rate. And that it will be able to build their factories in 12 months without any geopolitical problem and with swift negotiation with the goverments of all the countries. And with the asumption that Tesla suppliers will be able to grow at a similar rate and that all the copper/alum/etc mines will be able to satisfy the demand.</p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>Important data</strong></p> <p>Elon said that they will search where to build more factories in 2022 and that they will announce the location in 2023.</p> <p>The calculation is based on the premise that the factories will be built in 12 months and that they will be able to go at max output instantly. Elon said that they will increase their max output of the factories by 50% next year, so in the calculation in the 1st year the factories will have a max output of 500.000 cars and in the next 750.000.</p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>END OF 2021</strong></p> <p>Max output: Shanghai 500.000 cars</p> <p>Max output: Fremont 600.000 cars</p> <p>Total Max output: 1.100.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 700.000 cars</p> <p><strong>Result: Supply meets the demand</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>END OF 2022</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>GER: 500.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 500.000</p> <p>Total Max output: 2.650.000</p> <p>Production: 980.000 cars (+40% vs 2021)</p> <p><strong>END OF 2023 - Tesla announces 2 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>Total max ouput: 3.150.000</p> <p>Production: 1.372.000</p> <p><strong>END OF 2024 - 2 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 500.000</p> <p>NEW2: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 4.150.000</p> <p>Production: 1.920.800 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2025 - Tesla announces 3 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 4.650.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 2.689.120 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2026 - 3 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 500.000</p> <p>NEW4: 500.000</p> <p>NEW5: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 6.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 3.764.768 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2027 - Tesla announces 4 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 7.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 5.270.675 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2028 - 4 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 500.000</p> <p>NEW7: 500.000</p> <p>NEW8: 500.000</p> <p>NEW9: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 9.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 7.378.945 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2029 - Tesla announces 5 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 750.000</p> <p>NEW7: 750.000</p> <p>NEW8: 750.000</p> <p>NEW9: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 10.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 10.330.523 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2030 - 5 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 750.000</p> <p>NEW7: 750.000</p> <p>NEW8: 750.000</p> <p>NEW9: 750.000</p> <p>NEW10: 500.000</p> <p>NEW11: 500.000</p> <p>NEW12: 500.000</p> <p>NEW13: 500.000</p> <p>NEW14: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 12.650.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 14.462.732 cars</p> <p><strong>Result: Supply doesnt meet the demand</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p>This shows that in 2030 Tesla wont be able to grow at a 40% rate unless it builds more factories than in this analysis. In the case that Tesla announces a lower number of factories in the next years vs the analysis then their supply wont meet the demand sooner.</p> <p>In my opinion Tesla is more than capable to built 3-4 factories at the same time, the main problem would be the lack of human resources, regulatory problems like in Germany, negotiation issues, etc, all external problems that Tesla cant do anything about them.</p> <p>Internal problems like a lack of money for the new factories are not an issue for Tesla. </p> <p>One main advantage that Tesla has is that they can make the new factory better than the last one, so in 2030 they could need less factories to meet the demand by making each factory produce close to 1M like they aim to do in Fremont, this would offset any external problem like in Germany.</p> <p><strong>And this is where i ask for help: Has any automaker be able to built 5 factories at the same time? or any other industrial company? Apple, BYD?</strong></p> <p>In my opinion Tesla is a safe bet until 2025, then we will need to reevaluate it, cause predicting 9 years ahead is just guessing, anything can happen.</p> <p><strong>In my opinion BYD is the main threat to Tesla. And Starlink is the main threat to Tesla stocks cause even tesla investors will sell some shares and stop buying to buy Starlink shares when it goes public in 5 years.</strong></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/stiveooo"> /u/stiveooo </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qt7k87/is_2030_the_best_time_to_sell_tesla_analysis_of/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qt7k87/is_2030_the_best_time_to_sell_tesla_analysis_of/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Many say they will sell their Tesla shares in 2030, the logic behind this is that in 2030 Tesla will reach maturity like Amazon, Apple and grow at a slower rate (10-30% yoy) so for them whatever price the stock reaches doesn't matter to them, only the year "2030".</p> <p>But is 2030 the best time to sell? Will Tesla yoy growth justify its stock growth?</p> <p>Tesla doesn't have a demand problem cause it sells every car it makes, so their main problem is their supply capacity.</p> <p>So this analysys is based on the Utopia principle that Tesla will have enough demand until 2030 and that it will grow at a 40% rate. And that it will be able to build their factories in 12 months without any geopolitical problem and with swift negotiation with the goverments of all the countries. And with the asumption that Tesla suppliers will be able to grow at a similar rate and that all the copper/alum/etc mines will be able to satisfy the demand.</p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>Important data</strong></p> <p>Elon said that they will search where to build more factories in 2022 and that they will announce the location in 2023.</p> <p>The calculation is based on the premise that the factories will be built in 12 months and that they will be able to go at max output instantly. Elon said that they will increase their max output of the factories by 50% next year, so in the calculation in the 1st year the factories will have a max output of 500.000 cars and in the next 750.000.</p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>END OF 2021</strong></p> <p>Max output: Shanghai 500.000 cars</p> <p>Max output: Fremont 600.000 cars</p> <p>Total Max output: 1.100.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 700.000 cars</p> <p><strong>Result: Supply meets the demand</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>END OF 2022</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>GER: 500.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 500.000</p> <p>Total Max output: 2.650.000</p> <p>Production: 980.000 cars (+40% vs 2021)</p> <p><strong>END OF 2023 - Tesla announces 2 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>Total max ouput: 3.150.000</p> <p>Production: 1.372.000</p> <p><strong>END OF 2024 - 2 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 500.000</p> <p>NEW2: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 4.150.000</p> <p>Production: 1.920.800 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2025 - Tesla announces 3 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 4.650.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 2.689.120 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2026 - 3 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 500.000</p> <p>NEW4: 500.000</p> <p>NEW5: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 6.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 3.764.768 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2027 - Tesla announces 4 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 7.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 5.270.675 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2028 - 4 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 500.000</p> <p>NEW7: 500.000</p> <p>NEW8: 500.000</p> <p>NEW9: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 9.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 7.378.945 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2029 - Tesla announces 5 new factories</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 750.000</p> <p>NEW7: 750.000</p> <p>NEW8: 750.000</p> <p>NEW9: 750.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 10.150.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 10.330.523 cars</p> <p><strong>END OF 2030 - 5 new factories go full production</strong></p> <p>CHINA: 750.000</p> <p>USA: 900.000</p> <p>TEXAS: 750.000</p> <p>GER: 750.000</p> <p>NEW: 750.000</p> <p>NEW2: 750.000</p> <p>NEW3: 750.000</p> <p>NEW4: 750.000</p> <p>NEW5: 750.000</p> <p>NEW6: 750.000</p> <p>NEW7: 750.000</p> <p>NEW8: 750.000</p> <p>NEW9: 750.000</p> <p>NEW10: 500.000</p> <p>NEW11: 500.000</p> <p>NEW12: 500.000</p> <p>NEW13: 500.000</p> <p>NEW14: 500.000</p> <p>TOTAL: 12.650.000 cars</p> <p>Production: 14.462.732 cars</p> <p><strong>Result: Supply doesnt meet the demand</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p>This shows that in 2030 Tesla wont be able to grow at a 40% rate unless it builds more factories than in this analysis. In the case that Tesla announces a lower number of factories in the next years vs the analysis then their supply wont meet the demand sooner.</p> <p>In my opinion Tesla is more than capable to built 3-4 factories at the same time, the main problem would be the lack of human resources, regulatory problems like in Germany, negotiation issues, etc, all external problems that Tesla cant do anything about them.</p> <p>Internal problems like a lack of money for the new factories are not an issue for Tesla. </p> <p>One main advantage that Tesla has is that they can make the new factory better than the last one, so in 2030 they could need less factories to meet the demand by making each factory produce close to 1M like they aim to do in Fremont, this would offset any external problem like in Germany.</p> <p><strong>And this is where i ask for help: Has any automaker be able to built 5 factories at the same time? or any other industrial company? Apple, BYD?</strong></p> <p>In my opinion Tesla is a safe bet until 2025, then we will need to reevaluate it, cause predicting 9 years ahead is just guessing, anything can happen.</p> <p><strong>In my opinion BYD is the main threat to Tesla. And Starlink is the main threat to Tesla stocks cause even tesla investors will sell some shares and stop buying to buy Starlink shares when it goes public in 5 years.</strong></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/stiveooo"> /u/stiveooo </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qt7k87/is_2030_the_best_time_to_sell_tesla_analysis_of/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qt7k87/is_2030_the_best_time_to_sell_tesla_analysis_of/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R