02-09-2022, 06:45 AM
I Read Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest’s 132 Page “Big Ideas 2022” Report.. So You
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>If you don’t know her, Cathie Wood is a fund manager (Ark Invest) who rose to prominence in 2020/21 after a series of very successful investments/market bets.</p> <p>She is a strong believer in disruptive technologies.</p> <p>Think robotics, tomorrow’s batteries and genomics as well as erm.. blockchain technology and is perhaps <strong>the most bullish person</strong> on crypto.</p> <p>She recently predicted that BTC will be worth <strong>over $1M by 2030</strong>, making her perhaps the most bullish person I know.</p> <p>Allow me to summarize the report’s highlights on the future of Bitcoin..</p> <h1>Ark Invest analysts predict that the market capitalization of blockchain technology will reach $49T in 2030.</h1> <p>That’s roughly <strong>half</strong> what the global equities market is worth today ($106T).</p> <p>Cathie Wood predicts that <strong>more than half (57%)</strong> of that market cap will come from Bitcoin alone; believing Bitcoin’s market cap will climb to <strong>$28T by 2030.</strong></p> <p>Currently, Bitcoin's market cap stands at $815B, down from an ATH of around $1.2T.</p> <p>And this is where she gets her $1M/BTC price point from (more details on that at the end of this post).</p> <h1>According to Cathie Wood, El Salvador’s Bitcoin “experiment” is already a resounding success.</h1> <p><em>Why?</em> The data <strong>speaks volumes.</strong></p> <ul> <li># of people in El Salvador with a Bitcoin wallet = <strong>3.8 million</strong></li> <li># of people in El Salvador with a traditional bank account = <strong>1.9 million</strong> </li> </ul> <p>The % of eligible citizens with a Bitcoin wallet in El Salvador is 84% as of December 2021, versus 42% with a traditional bank account.</p> <p><strong>What’s more bullish is people are actually using these wallets!</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin wallets in El Salvador settled (on average) <strong>$2M worth of transactions in remittances DAILY</strong> as of October 2021.</li> <li>On an annual basis, this accounts for roughly <strong>12% of ALL remittances sent</strong> to El Salvador (total = $6B annually, or <strong>2% of El Salvador’s overall GDP</strong>)</li> </ul> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note I — Remittances are money transfers sent from one party who works abroad to another in their home country (typically family).</p> </blockquote> <h1>And El Salvador is not alone..</h1> <p>2021 was the year that Bitcoin’s annual settlement volume <strong>surpassed that of Visa’s.</strong></p> <p>Bitcoin’s total came to a whopping <strong>$13.1T, or ~120% of Visa’s.</strong></p> <p>This is effectively a <strong>5x increase</strong> on the previous year ($2.3T in 2020, ~24% of the Visa network’s).</p> <p>However, is the Bitcoin network becoming more dominated by larger investors with deeper pockets?!</p> <p><span class="md-spoiler-text">Well.. probably.</span></p> <p>The average value of each individual transaction in 2021 was $136,555. This is up from $21,590 in 2020, significantly more than the increase in Bitcoin’s price over the same period.</p> <p>This makes sense as ETFs, countries and companies have all increased their BTC holdings in 2021 and now hold roughly 1.5 million BTC. Or, <strong>8% of the total circulating supply.</strong></p> <p>The 5 largest publicly disclosed bitcoin wallets belong to the (1) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (2) Block One (3) Microstrategy (4) CoinShares and (5) Tesla.</p> <p><em>But what about me, you and the annoying Karen you avoid on the school run?</em></p> <h1>Believe it or not, most Bitcoin investors in 2021 were not speculators.</h1> <p>The number of BTC long term holders has been steadily increasing since 2011, except for a substantial “blip” back in 2018. Understandable.</p> <p>This trend has continued throughout the most recent bull run in 2020/21.</p> <p>Long term investors now collectively hold <strong>13.5m Bitcoin</strong>, or more than half of all BTC.</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note II — A “long term investor” is defined by Ark Invest as someone who has held their BTC for more than 155 days. </p> <p>Reader’s Note III — Yes, they removed any wallets with “dust” BTC from the data.</p> </blockquote> <h1>So how does Cathie Wood arrive at the $28T BTC market cap by 2030?</h1> <p><em>Is she, like all of us, drunk on hopium?</em></p> <p>I’ll give you the figures and let you make your mind up:</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note IV — Important For Context.. </p> <p>Gold’s market capitalization is $10T (2021) </p> <p>The global equities market has an overall market capitalization of $106T (2021) </p> <p>In their analysis, Ark Invest chose to project BTC’s 2030 market cap using 2021 data rather than “<em>projected</em>” 2030 data/guesswork.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now For The Juice:</p> <ul> <li>BTC will become the new “digital gold” and account for a whopping 50% of gold’s market cap by 2030 — or, $5.5T.</li> <li>More S&P companies will keep BTC on their balance sheets (like Tesla). Ark Invest estimates 5% of balance sheets will be kept in BTC — adding another $4.2T.</li> <li>Institutions are not far behind and will keep 2.55% of assets in BTC — accounting for $4.1T.</li> <li>High Net Worth Individuals will dedicate 5% of their portfolios to BTC — that’s another $4.0T right there.</li> <li>Nation-states will keep 1% of their reserves in BTC — providing a further $3.8T in “value” to the market.</li> <li>US Banks will get in on the action too and use BTC for 25% of all inter-bank settlements — that’s another $3.8T.</li> <li>BTC will have replaced fiat currencies in emerging markets at a rate of around 10% by 2030 — or, $2.8T.</li> <li>Finally, BTC will account for 50% of all global remittances — adding a relatively meagre $0.3T.</li> </ul> <p><span class="md-spoiler-text">Grand Total = $28.5T (equal to $1.36M/BTC)</span></p> <p>​</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note V — For those interested, I personally think some of these numbers are actually conservative especially as (mentioned earlier) they’re based on 2021 market capitalization rather than “projected” 2030 market caps.</p> </blockquote> <p>Obv there is so much more in the report about blockchain tech and DeFi, but I chose to focus on BTC in this post because I, honestly, already doubt anyone will read this considering its length so it doesn’t need to be any longer.</p> <p>Anyway, I’m sorry if I bored you and you’re most welcome if you happened to read and appreciate this post
</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/TheFamousHesham"> /u/TheFamousHesham </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/snx7rw/i_read_cathie_woods_ark_invests_132_page_big/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/snx7rw/i_read_cathie_woods_ark_invests_132_page_big/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>If you don’t know her, Cathie Wood is a fund manager (Ark Invest) who rose to prominence in 2020/21 after a series of very successful investments/market bets.</p> <p>She is a strong believer in disruptive technologies.</p> <p>Think robotics, tomorrow’s batteries and genomics as well as erm.. blockchain technology and is perhaps <strong>the most bullish person</strong> on crypto.</p> <p>She recently predicted that BTC will be worth <strong>over $1M by 2030</strong>, making her perhaps the most bullish person I know.</p> <p>Allow me to summarize the report’s highlights on the future of Bitcoin..</p> <h1>Ark Invest analysts predict that the market capitalization of blockchain technology will reach $49T in 2030.</h1> <p>That’s roughly <strong>half</strong> what the global equities market is worth today ($106T).</p> <p>Cathie Wood predicts that <strong>more than half (57%)</strong> of that market cap will come from Bitcoin alone; believing Bitcoin’s market cap will climb to <strong>$28T by 2030.</strong></p> <p>Currently, Bitcoin's market cap stands at $815B, down from an ATH of around $1.2T.</p> <p>And this is where she gets her $1M/BTC price point from (more details on that at the end of this post).</p> <h1>According to Cathie Wood, El Salvador’s Bitcoin “experiment” is already a resounding success.</h1> <p><em>Why?</em> The data <strong>speaks volumes.</strong></p> <ul> <li># of people in El Salvador with a Bitcoin wallet = <strong>3.8 million</strong></li> <li># of people in El Salvador with a traditional bank account = <strong>1.9 million</strong> </li> </ul> <p>The % of eligible citizens with a Bitcoin wallet in El Salvador is 84% as of December 2021, versus 42% with a traditional bank account.</p> <p><strong>What’s more bullish is people are actually using these wallets!</strong></p> <ul> <li>Bitcoin wallets in El Salvador settled (on average) <strong>$2M worth of transactions in remittances DAILY</strong> as of October 2021.</li> <li>On an annual basis, this accounts for roughly <strong>12% of ALL remittances sent</strong> to El Salvador (total = $6B annually, or <strong>2% of El Salvador’s overall GDP</strong>)</li> </ul> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note I — Remittances are money transfers sent from one party who works abroad to another in their home country (typically family).</p> </blockquote> <h1>And El Salvador is not alone..</h1> <p>2021 was the year that Bitcoin’s annual settlement volume <strong>surpassed that of Visa’s.</strong></p> <p>Bitcoin’s total came to a whopping <strong>$13.1T, or ~120% of Visa’s.</strong></p> <p>This is effectively a <strong>5x increase</strong> on the previous year ($2.3T in 2020, ~24% of the Visa network’s).</p> <p>However, is the Bitcoin network becoming more dominated by larger investors with deeper pockets?!</p> <p><span class="md-spoiler-text">Well.. probably.</span></p> <p>The average value of each individual transaction in 2021 was $136,555. This is up from $21,590 in 2020, significantly more than the increase in Bitcoin’s price over the same period.</p> <p>This makes sense as ETFs, countries and companies have all increased their BTC holdings in 2021 and now hold roughly 1.5 million BTC. Or, <strong>8% of the total circulating supply.</strong></p> <p>The 5 largest publicly disclosed bitcoin wallets belong to the (1) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (2) Block One (3) Microstrategy (4) CoinShares and (5) Tesla.</p> <p><em>But what about me, you and the annoying Karen you avoid on the school run?</em></p> <h1>Believe it or not, most Bitcoin investors in 2021 were not speculators.</h1> <p>The number of BTC long term holders has been steadily increasing since 2011, except for a substantial “blip” back in 2018. Understandable.</p> <p>This trend has continued throughout the most recent bull run in 2020/21.</p> <p>Long term investors now collectively hold <strong>13.5m Bitcoin</strong>, or more than half of all BTC.</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note II — A “long term investor” is defined by Ark Invest as someone who has held their BTC for more than 155 days. </p> <p>Reader’s Note III — Yes, they removed any wallets with “dust” BTC from the data.</p> </blockquote> <h1>So how does Cathie Wood arrive at the $28T BTC market cap by 2030?</h1> <p><em>Is she, like all of us, drunk on hopium?</em></p> <p>I’ll give you the figures and let you make your mind up:</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note IV — Important For Context.. </p> <p>Gold’s market capitalization is $10T (2021) </p> <p>The global equities market has an overall market capitalization of $106T (2021) </p> <p>In their analysis, Ark Invest chose to project BTC’s 2030 market cap using 2021 data rather than “<em>projected</em>” 2030 data/guesswork.</p> </blockquote> <p>Now For The Juice:</p> <ul> <li>BTC will become the new “digital gold” and account for a whopping 50% of gold’s market cap by 2030 — or, $5.5T.</li> <li>More S&P companies will keep BTC on their balance sheets (like Tesla). Ark Invest estimates 5% of balance sheets will be kept in BTC — adding another $4.2T.</li> <li>Institutions are not far behind and will keep 2.55% of assets in BTC — accounting for $4.1T.</li> <li>High Net Worth Individuals will dedicate 5% of their portfolios to BTC — that’s another $4.0T right there.</li> <li>Nation-states will keep 1% of their reserves in BTC — providing a further $3.8T in “value” to the market.</li> <li>US Banks will get in on the action too and use BTC for 25% of all inter-bank settlements — that’s another $3.8T.</li> <li>BTC will have replaced fiat currencies in emerging markets at a rate of around 10% by 2030 — or, $2.8T.</li> <li>Finally, BTC will account for 50% of all global remittances — adding a relatively meagre $0.3T.</li> </ul> <p><span class="md-spoiler-text">Grand Total = $28.5T (equal to $1.36M/BTC)</span></p> <p>​</p> <blockquote> <p>Reader’s Note V — For those interested, I personally think some of these numbers are actually conservative especially as (mentioned earlier) they’re based on 2021 market capitalization rather than “projected” 2030 market caps.</p> </blockquote> <p>Obv there is so much more in the report about blockchain tech and DeFi, but I chose to focus on BTC in this post because I, honestly, already doubt anyone will read this considering its length so it doesn’t need to be any longer.</p> <p>Anyway, I’m sorry if I bored you and you’re most welcome if you happened to read and appreciate this post
</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/TheFamousHesham"> /u/TheFamousHesham </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/snx7rw/i_read_cathie_woods_ark_invests_132_page_big/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/snx7rw/i_read_cathie_woods_ark_invests_132_page_big/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R