03-28-2020, 12:02 PM
A simple argument behind why I think BTC will fizzle out in the long term
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>I have had a running thesis that I think is still true. I have been posting about this thesis for many years on reddit and so far the price action has been proving me right. For those who haven't been following my comments over the years, here is my thesis:</p> <ol> <li>BTC's entire run up was caused by speculative buying that is common in bubbles. It will always remain to be a speculative and hype driven asset given that the fundamental reason most people are still buying it is to hope for a better price. It is not being bought for any real world transactional use, or for any other fundamental reason</li> <li>Given greater fool theory, bubbles will continue for BTC until saturation in demand hits (i.e. no fools left). The maximum saturation for any bubble is when mainstream media interest has peaked and the average Joe has heard about BTC. This occurred in December 2017.</li> <li>Many would counter this saying "but we had a bubble in 2014 too, and it went back up". Yes, but it never reached mainstream media interest. The average Joe around you wasn't talking about BTC even then. Given that the entire run up was caused by hype and speculation, this is extremely important.</li> <li>Since we've peaked mainstream interest, new buyers won't feel the same rush of adrenaline they once got buying early. It is impossible for someone to feel like they're early on buying something if that something is already known. This is extremely important for hype driven assets.</li> <li>Thus, BTC will in the long term (we're talking many years) make lower highs over and over, and then fizzle out.</li> </ol> <p>Every time I have posted this thesis, over the last two years, there are almost no counter arguments and people just get emotional and refuse to engage. So far, the price action has proven me right, and I suspect it'll continue to do so.</p> <p>BTW, everything I said applies to all alts even moreso. BTC is just the king so I used it as an example.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>I have had a running thesis that I think is still true. I have been posting about this thesis for many years on reddit and so far the price action has been proving me right. For those who haven't been following my comments over the years, here is my thesis:</p> <ol> <li>BTC's entire run up was caused by speculative buying that is common in bubbles. It will always remain to be a speculative and hype driven asset given that the fundamental reason most people are still buying it is to hope for a better price. It is not being bought for any real world transactional use, or for any other fundamental reason</li> <li>Given greater fool theory, bubbles will continue for BTC until saturation in demand hits (i.e. no fools left). The maximum saturation for any bubble is when mainstream media interest has peaked and the average Joe has heard about BTC. This occurred in December 2017.</li> <li>Many would counter this saying "but we had a bubble in 2014 too, and it went back up". Yes, but it never reached mainstream media interest. The average Joe around you wasn't talking about BTC even then. Given that the entire run up was caused by hype and speculation, this is extremely important.</li> <li>Since we've peaked mainstream interest, new buyers won't feel the same rush of adrenaline they once got buying early. It is impossible for someone to feel like they're early on buying something if that something is already known. This is extremely important for hype driven assets.</li> <li>Thus, BTC will in the long term (we're talking many years) make lower highs over and over, and then fizzle out.</li> </ol> <p>Every time I have posted this thesis, over the last two years, there are almost no counter arguments and people just get emotional and refuse to engage. So far, the price action has proven me right, and I suspect it'll continue to do so.</p> <p>BTW, everything I said applies to all alts even moreso. BTC is just the king so I used it as an example.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R