07-25-2022, 12:47 AM
beware bearmarket rallies
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>After the most recent rally, bitcoin is down 65% from the all-time high in November, 253 days in. 2013 and 2017 cycles found a bottom at 84.82% and 83.47% with both lasting close to around 400 days. Bitcoin’s latest rally is not out of the ordinary for the typical bear market rally move. Even a move to $30,000 is possible </p> <p>The other way to look at rallies is to see how high prices move off of new lows. Using daily close prices and not absolute bottom wick prices, the 2013-2015 cycle saw rally gains of 84.12% at its highest while 2017-2018 saw 67.93%. In the current cycle we’ve seen a 35.54% rally move at its highest while the latest move, now around 26%.</p> <p>Are economic and liquidity conditions getting better to justify a reversal? Has there been a fundamental change or catalyst for bitcoin to suggest it won’t follow broader market moves?</p> <p>It’s possible that bitcoin has already front-runned that move and will likely be the asset to bottom first, anyway. The more likely case is that bitcoin will at least revisit previous lows and likely make a new one.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/iamwizzerd"> /u/iamwizzerd </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w6znjf/beware_bearmarket_rallies/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w6znjf/beware_bearmarket_rallies/">[comments]</a></span>
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>After the most recent rally, bitcoin is down 65% from the all-time high in November, 253 days in. 2013 and 2017 cycles found a bottom at 84.82% and 83.47% with both lasting close to around 400 days. Bitcoin’s latest rally is not out of the ordinary for the typical bear market rally move. Even a move to $30,000 is possible </p> <p>The other way to look at rallies is to see how high prices move off of new lows. Using daily close prices and not absolute bottom wick prices, the 2013-2015 cycle saw rally gains of 84.12% at its highest while 2017-2018 saw 67.93%. In the current cycle we’ve seen a 35.54% rally move at its highest while the latest move, now around 26%.</p> <p>Are economic and liquidity conditions getting better to justify a reversal? Has there been a fundamental change or catalyst for bitcoin to suggest it won’t follow broader market moves?</p> <p>It’s possible that bitcoin has already front-runned that move and will likely be the asset to bottom first, anyway. The more likely case is that bitcoin will at least revisit previous lows and likely make a new one.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/iamwizzerd"> /u/iamwizzerd </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w6znjf/beware_bearmarket_rallies/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/w6znjf/beware_bearmarket_rallies/">[comments]</a></span>