10-30-2022, 11:17 AM
Influencers: how many wrong predictions make a right one? TL;DR: Apparently not enou
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/BM5HvwuUSxAtOiV8yLA8ENzJjjDM9H0SVKTSMFKfeSY.jpg" alt="Influencers: how many wrong predictions make a right one? TL;DR: Apparently not enough." title="Influencers: how many wrong predictions make a right one? TL;DR: Apparently not enough." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>The objective of this post is to show that no one can predict the market, regardless of how good their analysis might seem.</p> <p>I take so-called analysis from YouTuber/Influencer Ben Cowen between 2019 and 2020 and show how none of them predicted 2021's ATH up to 12 months before it. <strong>Bear in mind that TA is supposed to help you in the long run, so 12 months of a slightly right prediction should be on the plate.</strong></p> <p><strong>I have nothing against him, personally</strong>. I chose him because he is highly regarded in the people that consume crypto content. I'm not making any judgement on such content nor about his personality or whatever. <strong>I will only show what he predicted and what actually happened, as simple as that</strong>.</p> <p>I will try to make this short. All info is referenced either in the figure titles or in the bullet texts.</p> <h1>Methodology</h1> <p>I take videos from each month between November 2019 and December 2020, aka before and during the start of last bull run, and summarize the predictions. I then compare the predictions to what actually happened. I focus on BTC and it's All Time High (ATH) and in when it was reached.</p> <h1>BTC ATH predictions made in 2019-2020</h1> <ul> <li>14th of Nov/2019: BTC ATH's could potentially be in the $<strong>140k-$150k EOY 2022</strong>, as per the chart below (the actual price was around $47,800 by that time):</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/x7s4ar8ufrw91.png?width=1465&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1e566d01ff0a33de59f7b59cf50621262d160a3">Fig. 1 - watch?v=MpxxioVagcs, around 9min</a></p> <ul> <li>21st of Nov/2019: the <strong>same prediction. ATH will be around $150k by 2022</strong> (watch?v=I5I7SQdl9S4, 8:53s). It's also the first video where he mentions his hypothesis of a lengthening cycle.</li> <li>Unknown day, Nov/2019: <strong>same prediction, but by the end of 2022</strong>. He used a different chart this time:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8um5wfydirw91.png?width=1463&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f8b39098c31d217dda5a3fda698e49394a08ac2">Fig. 2 - watch?v=jy8CtyjA1WY, around 9:22s</a></p> <p>He continues to say that there are evidences of a lengthening cycle. He also gives a prediction of 100k with an error of +- 1 year for the cycle, i.e. between 2022 and 2024 (around 8:44s). Considering the cycle as 4 years, he said that the price could be achieved in 75% of that time. A data scientist in a lab just had a heart attack. Around 15:22s, he literally draws a graph pattern in the figure, "just for fun", to check how things could potentially be.</p> <ul> <li>17th of Dec/2019: same predictions summed up (watch?v=HDt3_oNYhEg).</li> <li>31st of Dec/2019: same prediction, but now between 2023 and 2024:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/pbs5pecxkrw91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=557e805ce8de671f9b114bb9531bc261e89fd155">Fig. 3 - watch?v=39RTh3Wyp3U, around 6:54s</a></p> <ul> <li>25th of Jan/2020: <strong>ATH of $70k around the beginning of 2023</strong> (watch?v=i1li3ShY0hA, around 3:12s)</li> <li>9th of Feb/2020: <strong>ATH of $100k by 2022's end.</strong> Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, was around 20k:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/o88ggzbeprw91.png?width=2351&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f0760cc7023660a6347ce217523878e5915ce57">Fig. 4 - watch?v=lu36NilwZoM, 4:28s</a></p> <ul> <li>7th of Mar/2020: <strong>$174k in Dec 2022</strong>. Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, is around 20k**:**</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/qjx2m9fjqrw91.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4ea0040e94d426c23f5bd1723583770a9be71a7">Fig. 5 - watch?v=ETzng0HLFWg, 7:53s</a></p> <ul> <li>27th of Mar/2020: <strong>$100k by 2023</strong> (watch?v=WUPy3b3wGYc, 8:33s)</li> <li>28th of Mar/2020: <strong>$140k by 2023's end. The 2021's peak that happened is neglected</strong>:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/ly0u3rquvrw91.png?width=1595&format=png&auto=webp&s=48478382ef72e3024c9474839a83d219c6aaabff">Fig. 6 - watch?v=AHuKHmeJf-I, 5:13s</a></p> <ul> <li>30th of Apr/2020: <strong>$140k by August 2023</strong> (watch?v=bFOxdT6aY90, 12:20s). Price when the $69k peak actually happened is predicted as around $30k is his video.</li> <li>8th of May/2020: <strong>$100k-$200k by August 2023.</strong> 2021 real peak is neglected**:**</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/6n1emu80yrw91.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b783ffcd333d9d478fdbf07f37a1e7446d62f59">Fig. 7 - watch?v=5b9r7VW46eQ, around 7min</a></p> <ul> <li>12th of May/2020: <strong>$100k-$200k by August 2023</strong> (watch?v=_XcKrQXEdwY, 5:24s)</li> <li>23rd of June/2020: <strong>$198k EOY 2021</strong>, as per this chart:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/jc98gchvzrw91.png?width=1212&format=png&auto=webp&s=af4ad54660b365219bf091f2be1f5dced2145920">Fig. 8 - watch?v=Mupv95PVLQg, 6:54s</a></p> <ul> <li>1st of August/2020: <strong>$140k EOY 2022</strong>:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/20ks15mm0sw91.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=a57aa35afb6a646f61d8f976319af33dcf5cf7f6">Fig. 9 - watch?v=N4GJ-LfA3D4, 6:26s</a></p> <p>As for now I will refrain from posting pictures to avoid making the post longer:</p> <ul> <li>26th of Sep/2020: <strong>$140k EOY 2022</strong> (watch?v=Apc3nprtmeI, 3:07s)</li> <li>30th of Sep/2020: <strong>"Next blow out top of six figures"</strong> (watch?v=YCFd6jSksbE, around 5:30s). Next blow after this was $69k, as we know</li> <li>8th of Oct/2020: <strong>$140k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, 8:45s), 2021 ATH not predicted.</li> <li>30th of Oct/2020: <strong>$140k between Q4 2022 and Q2 2024</strong> (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, around 8:15s). That's a year and a half of time span. 2021's ATH was not predicted in this video as well.</li> <li>14th of Nov/2020: <strong>$117k EOY 2022/beginning of 2023</strong> (watch?v=OS389bR6uww, 7:13s)</li> <li>17th of Nov/2020: <strong>$140k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=nf68hN-2z4E, 5:53s)</li> <li>5th of Dec/2020: <strong>$80k by Q2 2023</strong> (watch?v=qVSM-lUfWPY, 12:12s). 2021 peak not predicted</li> <li>20th of Dec/2020: <strong>$100k EOY 2021</strong> (watch?v=6Xr3od36aqg, 2:11s)</li> <li>27th of Dec/2020: <strong>$150k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=0Xf-xSpbtVM, 5:44s). 2021 peak not predicted</li> <li>30th of Dec/2020: <strong>$200k EOY 2024</strong> (watch?v=w0xJu6Geyq0, 3:26s).</li> </ul> <h1>The Lengthening Cycle (LC) and Diminishing Returns Hypothesis</h1> <p>Another hypothesis he has is that this cycle would take longer than 4 years and that BTC's ATH would be reached not in 2021, but later on and with a diminished return when compared with the ones gotten from last runs. The problem is that this hypothesis completely denied 2021's peak, as it predicts an ATH of $100k in mid-2023 whereas Dec/2021 was predicted as around $30k:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/5104ujjxurw91.png?width=1474&format=png&auto=webp&s=754d63095ac7e8f70a0abfa7d063a3c8b6f39754">Fig. 10 - watch?v=J2FAHk6mWF8, 7:14s</a></p> <p>Time will tell.</p> <h1>So reddito321, what is your point?</h1> <p><strong>TL;DR: As good as a so-called analysis seems to be, it won't predict the market.</strong></p> <p>One of the highest regarded YouTubers in the community has been wrong countless times and did not predict 2021's peak up to a year before it.</p> <p>If you like this kind of content and follow it, good on you, but know that you're watching entertainment only and no tips should be taken seriously.</p> <p>Also bear in mind that the point here is that 2021's peak was not predicted. <strong>If we reach $140k by mid 2023 it also does not mean that he was right</strong>. He predicted many ATHs in many different time spans. If one predicts countless scenarios, one of them might eventually show up true. That doesn't make that person gospel.</p> <p>What he is predicting today might not show up true in 12 months. Invest what you can afford to lose and avoid high risks.</p> <p>Finally and about all so-called influencers: if they're really good in forecasting the market, they'll be out there enjoying their richness, not posting YT videos.</p> <p>Godspeed!</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/reddito321"> /u/reddito321 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/BM5HvwuUSxAtOiV8yLA8ENzJjjDM9H0SVKTSMFKfeSY.jpg" alt="Influencers: how many wrong predictions make a right one? TL;DR: Apparently not enough." title="Influencers: how many wrong predictions make a right one? TL;DR: Apparently not enough." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>The objective of this post is to show that no one can predict the market, regardless of how good their analysis might seem.</p> <p>I take so-called analysis from YouTuber/Influencer Ben Cowen between 2019 and 2020 and show how none of them predicted 2021's ATH up to 12 months before it. <strong>Bear in mind that TA is supposed to help you in the long run, so 12 months of a slightly right prediction should be on the plate.</strong></p> <p><strong>I have nothing against him, personally</strong>. I chose him because he is highly regarded in the people that consume crypto content. I'm not making any judgement on such content nor about his personality or whatever. <strong>I will only show what he predicted and what actually happened, as simple as that</strong>.</p> <p>I will try to make this short. All info is referenced either in the figure titles or in the bullet texts.</p> <h1>Methodology</h1> <p>I take videos from each month between November 2019 and December 2020, aka before and during the start of last bull run, and summarize the predictions. I then compare the predictions to what actually happened. I focus on BTC and it's All Time High (ATH) and in when it was reached.</p> <h1>BTC ATH predictions made in 2019-2020</h1> <ul> <li>14th of Nov/2019: BTC ATH's could potentially be in the $<strong>140k-$150k EOY 2022</strong>, as per the chart below (the actual price was around $47,800 by that time):</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/x7s4ar8ufrw91.png?width=1465&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1e566d01ff0a33de59f7b59cf50621262d160a3">Fig. 1 - watch?v=MpxxioVagcs, around 9min</a></p> <ul> <li>21st of Nov/2019: the <strong>same prediction. ATH will be around $150k by 2022</strong> (watch?v=I5I7SQdl9S4, 8:53s). It's also the first video where he mentions his hypothesis of a lengthening cycle.</li> <li>Unknown day, Nov/2019: <strong>same prediction, but by the end of 2022</strong>. He used a different chart this time:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8um5wfydirw91.png?width=1463&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f8b39098c31d217dda5a3fda698e49394a08ac2">Fig. 2 - watch?v=jy8CtyjA1WY, around 9:22s</a></p> <p>He continues to say that there are evidences of a lengthening cycle. He also gives a prediction of 100k with an error of +- 1 year for the cycle, i.e. between 2022 and 2024 (around 8:44s). Considering the cycle as 4 years, he said that the price could be achieved in 75% of that time. A data scientist in a lab just had a heart attack. Around 15:22s, he literally draws a graph pattern in the figure, "just for fun", to check how things could potentially be.</p> <ul> <li>17th of Dec/2019: same predictions summed up (watch?v=HDt3_oNYhEg).</li> <li>31st of Dec/2019: same prediction, but now between 2023 and 2024:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/pbs5pecxkrw91.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=557e805ce8de671f9b114bb9531bc261e89fd155">Fig. 3 - watch?v=39RTh3Wyp3U, around 6:54s</a></p> <ul> <li>25th of Jan/2020: <strong>ATH of $70k around the beginning of 2023</strong> (watch?v=i1li3ShY0hA, around 3:12s)</li> <li>9th of Feb/2020: <strong>ATH of $100k by 2022's end.</strong> Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, was around 20k:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/o88ggzbeprw91.png?width=2351&format=png&auto=webp&s=7f0760cc7023660a6347ce217523878e5915ce57">Fig. 4 - watch?v=lu36NilwZoM, 4:28s</a></p> <ul> <li>7th of Mar/2020: <strong>$174k in Dec 2022</strong>. Price in Dec/2021, when the actual ATH happened, is around 20k**:**</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/qjx2m9fjqrw91.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4ea0040e94d426c23f5bd1723583770a9be71a7">Fig. 5 - watch?v=ETzng0HLFWg, 7:53s</a></p> <ul> <li>27th of Mar/2020: <strong>$100k by 2023</strong> (watch?v=WUPy3b3wGYc, 8:33s)</li> <li>28th of Mar/2020: <strong>$140k by 2023's end. The 2021's peak that happened is neglected</strong>:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/ly0u3rquvrw91.png?width=1595&format=png&auto=webp&s=48478382ef72e3024c9474839a83d219c6aaabff">Fig. 6 - watch?v=AHuKHmeJf-I, 5:13s</a></p> <ul> <li>30th of Apr/2020: <strong>$140k by August 2023</strong> (watch?v=bFOxdT6aY90, 12:20s). Price when the $69k peak actually happened is predicted as around $30k is his video.</li> <li>8th of May/2020: <strong>$100k-$200k by August 2023.</strong> 2021 real peak is neglected**:**</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/6n1emu80yrw91.png?width=1478&format=png&auto=webp&s=1b783ffcd333d9d478fdbf07f37a1e7446d62f59">Fig. 7 - watch?v=5b9r7VW46eQ, around 7min</a></p> <ul> <li>12th of May/2020: <strong>$100k-$200k by August 2023</strong> (watch?v=_XcKrQXEdwY, 5:24s)</li> <li>23rd of June/2020: <strong>$198k EOY 2021</strong>, as per this chart:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/jc98gchvzrw91.png?width=1212&format=png&auto=webp&s=af4ad54660b365219bf091f2be1f5dced2145920">Fig. 8 - watch?v=Mupv95PVLQg, 6:54s</a></p> <ul> <li>1st of August/2020: <strong>$140k EOY 2022</strong>:</li> </ul> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/20ks15mm0sw91.png?width=1468&format=png&auto=webp&s=a57aa35afb6a646f61d8f976319af33dcf5cf7f6">Fig. 9 - watch?v=N4GJ-LfA3D4, 6:26s</a></p> <p>As for now I will refrain from posting pictures to avoid making the post longer:</p> <ul> <li>26th of Sep/2020: <strong>$140k EOY 2022</strong> (watch?v=Apc3nprtmeI, 3:07s)</li> <li>30th of Sep/2020: <strong>"Next blow out top of six figures"</strong> (watch?v=YCFd6jSksbE, around 5:30s). Next blow after this was $69k, as we know</li> <li>8th of Oct/2020: <strong>$140k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, 8:45s), 2021 ATH not predicted.</li> <li>30th of Oct/2020: <strong>$140k between Q4 2022 and Q2 2024</strong> (watch?v=barjn43-x1U, around 8:15s). That's a year and a half of time span. 2021's ATH was not predicted in this video as well.</li> <li>14th of Nov/2020: <strong>$117k EOY 2022/beginning of 2023</strong> (watch?v=OS389bR6uww, 7:13s)</li> <li>17th of Nov/2020: <strong>$140k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=nf68hN-2z4E, 5:53s)</li> <li>5th of Dec/2020: <strong>$80k by Q2 2023</strong> (watch?v=qVSM-lUfWPY, 12:12s). 2021 peak not predicted</li> <li>20th of Dec/2020: <strong>$100k EOY 2021</strong> (watch?v=6Xr3od36aqg, 2:11s)</li> <li>27th of Dec/2020: <strong>$150k by mid 2023</strong> (watch?v=0Xf-xSpbtVM, 5:44s). 2021 peak not predicted</li> <li>30th of Dec/2020: <strong>$200k EOY 2024</strong> (watch?v=w0xJu6Geyq0, 3:26s).</li> </ul> <h1>The Lengthening Cycle (LC) and Diminishing Returns Hypothesis</h1> <p>Another hypothesis he has is that this cycle would take longer than 4 years and that BTC's ATH would be reached not in 2021, but later on and with a diminished return when compared with the ones gotten from last runs. The problem is that this hypothesis completely denied 2021's peak, as it predicts an ATH of $100k in mid-2023 whereas Dec/2021 was predicted as around $30k:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/5104ujjxurw91.png?width=1474&format=png&auto=webp&s=754d63095ac7e8f70a0abfa7d063a3c8b6f39754">Fig. 10 - watch?v=J2FAHk6mWF8, 7:14s</a></p> <p>Time will tell.</p> <h1>So reddito321, what is your point?</h1> <p><strong>TL;DR: As good as a so-called analysis seems to be, it won't predict the market.</strong></p> <p>One of the highest regarded YouTubers in the community has been wrong countless times and did not predict 2021's peak up to a year before it.</p> <p>If you like this kind of content and follow it, good on you, but know that you're watching entertainment only and no tips should be taken seriously.</p> <p>Also bear in mind that the point here is that 2021's peak was not predicted. <strong>If we reach $140k by mid 2023 it also does not mean that he was right</strong>. He predicted many ATHs in many different time spans. If one predicts countless scenarios, one of them might eventually show up true. That doesn't make that person gospel.</p> <p>What he is predicting today might not show up true in 12 months. Invest what you can afford to lose and avoid high risks.</p> <p>Finally and about all so-called influencers: if they're really good in forecasting the market, they'll be out there enjoying their richness, not posting YT videos.</p> <p>Godspeed!</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/reddito321"> /u/reddito321 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ygq27b/influencers_how_many_wrong_predictions_make_a/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>