11-15-2022, 10:40 AM
It's time for my second post again: we have reached the "capitulation" phase.
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p><strong>My credentials: last time I posted was a bit more than a year ago in august to</strong> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/p0j248/the_return_to_normal_phase_consider_taking/"><strong>warn people we were in the "return to normal" phase</strong></a> <strong>and that it would be the last opportunity to take profits (which was of course ridiculed and mostly downvoted then).</strong><br/> <strong>I have called the end of the bullrun since may 2021 as a few others did as well (apparently comments history doesn't go beyond 1 year so i can't find the quote for that one).</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>Now it is time for a new post again, to do my duty and share my assessment that we have entered the long awaited "Capitulation" phase and we're entering the one window to DCA in for the next 4 years.</strong></p> <p><strong>Next post in probably 2 years, once we hit "Mania" again...</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p>​</p> <p>I don't give much attention to "technical analysis" and focus mostly on recognizing the psychological cycle (especially by following this sub): price patterns and predictions are meaningless, but human psychology repeats in a much more reliable way.</p> <p>For instance, price wise I must admit I was surprised of how far up in price the 'return to normal' phase went compared to the expected level (even hitting ATH for a few days if you don't count for inflation).<br/> In retrospect this can possibly be explained by the fact that so many people expected a 2017 style blow-off-top Mania phase that it made the return-to-normal much stronger as more people were convinced it wasn't over yet.<br/> During Mania, a lot more of the retail FOMO was diverted to the doggy shitcoins this cycle compared to 2017 (which show a much clearer 'blow-off top' pattern).<br/> All this to say that focusing on price patterns is useless and unpredictable. What is recognizable and reliable are the mood, and even though I couldn't predict how far up the return to normal went in terms of price, I could see that we were in that phase.</p> <p>​</p> <p>The psychological cycle:</p> <ul> <li>Mania (april 2021)<br/></li> <li>Denial (may 2021) </li> <li>Return-to-normal (august 2021) <- best time to DCA out</li> <li>Fear (december 2021) </li> <li>Panic (may 2022)</li> <li>Boredom (june 2022)</li> <li><strong>Capitulation (now)</strong> <- best time to DCA in</li> <li>Depression</li> <li>Disbelief</li> <li>Optimism</li> <li><p>Mania </p> <p><em>Shadows & dust</em><br/> ?</p></li> </ul> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ronchon"> /u/ronchon </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[comments]</a></span>
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p><strong>My credentials: last time I posted was a bit more than a year ago in august to</strong> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/p0j248/the_return_to_normal_phase_consider_taking/"><strong>warn people we were in the "return to normal" phase</strong></a> <strong>and that it would be the last opportunity to take profits (which was of course ridiculed and mostly downvoted then).</strong><br/> <strong>I have called the end of the bullrun since may 2021 as a few others did as well (apparently comments history doesn't go beyond 1 year so i can't find the quote for that one).</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p><strong>Now it is time for a new post again, to do my duty and share my assessment that we have entered the long awaited "Capitulation" phase and we're entering the one window to DCA in for the next 4 years.</strong></p> <p><strong>Next post in probably 2 years, once we hit "Mania" again...</strong></p> <p>​</p> <p>​</p> <p>I don't give much attention to "technical analysis" and focus mostly on recognizing the psychological cycle (especially by following this sub): price patterns and predictions are meaningless, but human psychology repeats in a much more reliable way.</p> <p>For instance, price wise I must admit I was surprised of how far up in price the 'return to normal' phase went compared to the expected level (even hitting ATH for a few days if you don't count for inflation).<br/> In retrospect this can possibly be explained by the fact that so many people expected a 2017 style blow-off-top Mania phase that it made the return-to-normal much stronger as more people were convinced it wasn't over yet.<br/> During Mania, a lot more of the retail FOMO was diverted to the doggy shitcoins this cycle compared to 2017 (which show a much clearer 'blow-off top' pattern).<br/> All this to say that focusing on price patterns is useless and unpredictable. What is recognizable and reliable are the mood, and even though I couldn't predict how far up the return to normal went in terms of price, I could see that we were in that phase.</p> <p>​</p> <p>The psychological cycle:</p> <ul> <li>Mania (april 2021)<br/></li> <li>Denial (may 2021) </li> <li>Return-to-normal (august 2021) <- best time to DCA out</li> <li>Fear (december 2021) </li> <li>Panic (may 2022)</li> <li>Boredom (june 2022)</li> <li><strong>Capitulation (now)</strong> <- best time to DCA in</li> <li>Depression</li> <li>Disbelief</li> <li>Optimism</li> <li><p>Mania </p> <p><em>Shadows & dust</em><br/> ?</p></li> </ul> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ronchon"> /u/ronchon </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/yv04y0/its_time_for_my_second_post_again_we_have_reached/">[comments]</a></span>