08-08-2020, 12:20 PM
Crypto trading experiment - FEAR vs FOMO - Week 4
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Crypto trading experiment - FEAR vs FOMO - Week 4</p> <p>​</p> <p>I previously posted my experiment below to experiment with a simulation trading of five portfolios, with a control portfolio of bitcoin, competing against two "FOMO" and two "FEAR" portfolios (tracking the top or bottom performers in the top 100 and 200 CMC rankings). Each week the portfolios sell and rebalance into five coins.</p> <p>This is week 4 into the experiment - weeks, 1-3 posted below:</p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/huslrk/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/huslrk/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/hwoezd/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/hwoezd/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/i0ilyn/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_3/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/i0ilyn/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_3/</a></p> <p>Results are out for week 3 - lets see how our last performers did. New portfolios below with their purchase prices for each crypto and current total value (see the links above to see the previous holdings). Please note these are prices logged around 20 hours ago, so there is some time lag (including with the older portfolios which I am still tracking live):</p> <p>BTC 100%: $1,272 = +27% - BTC really is the king! Destroying all other alt returns right now.</p> <p>FOMO 100 = Elrond, Flexacoin (0.0048), Eth (318.59), LTC (54.85), BCH (285.62) - TOTAL value $1,001 <strong>(up from $970.94 - a 3% gain in the week)</strong></p> <p>FOMO 200 = Travala (1.83) - +158%, Adex (0.2866), Solona (1.70), Elrond (0.02548), voyager (0.16818) TOTAL value $917.57 <strong>(down from $970.94 - a 5.4 fall)</strong></p> <p>FEAR 100 = Ampleforth, Aurora (0.01156), Band (3.84), iExec RLC (1.11), Compound (132.79)<br/> Total value $1200,29 <strong>(up from $990.16 - a massive 21.2% gain in a week)</strong></p> <p>FEAR 200 = Ampleforth (1.17), IRISnet (0.0474), RSR (0.009132), Haven (1.65), Velas (0.048962)<br/> Total value $1,023.41 (<strong>up 4.6% in the week).</strong></p> <p>Notable performers were Band (up around 90%, partly thanks to a coinbase listing), Aurora (+58%), Iris (+40%), Elrond (-21%), ETH (+27%) and Ampleforth (down from US $1.17 to $0,80c). And note that the "FEAR" portfolios still did relatively well despite holding AMPL.</p> <p>So in order we now have the following total values:</p> <p>BTC 100% = $1,272</p> <p>FEAR 100 = $1200.29</p> <p>FEAR 200 = $1023</p> <p>FOMO 100 = $1001</p> <p>FOMO 200 = $917.57</p> <p>We can also look at the values had we simply held any of the previous weekly portfolios (which I'm still tracking):</p> <p>FOMO 100 (week 1 = $1,184), (week 2 = $1053),</p> <p>FOMO 200 (week 1 = $1,082), (week 2 = $1,157)</p> <p>FEAR 100 (week 1 = $1007), (week 2 = $1,081)</p> <p>FEAR 200 (week 1 = $929), (week 2 = $1,019)</p> <p>So look at all possible portfolios - a 100% bitcoin portfolio beats everything! But the top portfolio is still the FEAR 10 portfolio at week 3 - very close at +20%. The worse possible performer is the current "FOMO 200" portfolio at $917 or around -8.5%. So interesting, this suggests that the rotation method of buying losers and reshuffling may be the best strategy, whereas always buying the winners is the worst! And that despite all that, so far, just holding BTC is the best!</p> <p>So as might be expected, buying into "losers" on the weekly really pays off compared to buying "winners" but so far BTC is king. Will this be the case if alt coins regain their shine?</p> <p>Rebalancing and rebuying into week 5 gives us four new portfolios to follow:</p> <p>FOMO 100: Band, Ocean, Bancor, Energy Web Token, Hedge Trade;</p> <p>FOMO 200: DOS, Akropolis, Bora, Band, Vidt</p> <p>FEAR 100: Ampleforth, Nexo, Elrond, Elasto, True Web</p> <p>Fear 200 - Digitex, Ampleforth, ABBC, Nexo, Elrond.</p> <p>What is notable is that now the "FEAR" portfolios share quite a few choices but in particular, AMPL remains in the Fear portfolios for two weeks in a row - I'm not sure we have had that before.</p> <p>Also - a few coins jump from FEAR to FOMO or vice visa - Band jumps from FEAR to FOMO, and ELROND jumps from FOMO to FEAR!</p> <p>Stay tuned for next weeks results.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Crypto trading experiment - FEAR vs FOMO - Week 4</p> <p>​</p> <p>I previously posted my experiment below to experiment with a simulation trading of five portfolios, with a control portfolio of bitcoin, competing against two "FOMO" and two "FEAR" portfolios (tracking the top or bottom performers in the top 100 and 200 CMC rankings). Each week the portfolios sell and rebalance into five coins.</p> <p>This is week 4 into the experiment - weeks, 1-3 posted below:</p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/huslrk/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/huslrk/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/hwoezd/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/hwoezd/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_1/</a></p> <p><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/i0ilyn/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_3/">https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/i0ilyn/crypto_trading_experiment_fomo_vs_fear_week_3/</a></p> <p>Results are out for week 3 - lets see how our last performers did. New portfolios below with their purchase prices for each crypto and current total value (see the links above to see the previous holdings). Please note these are prices logged around 20 hours ago, so there is some time lag (including with the older portfolios which I am still tracking live):</p> <p>BTC 100%: $1,272 = +27% - BTC really is the king! Destroying all other alt returns right now.</p> <p>FOMO 100 = Elrond, Flexacoin (0.0048), Eth (318.59), LTC (54.85), BCH (285.62) - TOTAL value $1,001 <strong>(up from $970.94 - a 3% gain in the week)</strong></p> <p>FOMO 200 = Travala (1.83) - +158%, Adex (0.2866), Solona (1.70), Elrond (0.02548), voyager (0.16818) TOTAL value $917.57 <strong>(down from $970.94 - a 5.4 fall)</strong></p> <p>FEAR 100 = Ampleforth, Aurora (0.01156), Band (3.84), iExec RLC (1.11), Compound (132.79)<br/> Total value $1200,29 <strong>(up from $990.16 - a massive 21.2% gain in a week)</strong></p> <p>FEAR 200 = Ampleforth (1.17), IRISnet (0.0474), RSR (0.009132), Haven (1.65), Velas (0.048962)<br/> Total value $1,023.41 (<strong>up 4.6% in the week).</strong></p> <p>Notable performers were Band (up around 90%, partly thanks to a coinbase listing), Aurora (+58%), Iris (+40%), Elrond (-21%), ETH (+27%) and Ampleforth (down from US $1.17 to $0,80c). And note that the "FEAR" portfolios still did relatively well despite holding AMPL.</p> <p>So in order we now have the following total values:</p> <p>BTC 100% = $1,272</p> <p>FEAR 100 = $1200.29</p> <p>FEAR 200 = $1023</p> <p>FOMO 100 = $1001</p> <p>FOMO 200 = $917.57</p> <p>We can also look at the values had we simply held any of the previous weekly portfolios (which I'm still tracking):</p> <p>FOMO 100 (week 1 = $1,184), (week 2 = $1053),</p> <p>FOMO 200 (week 1 = $1,082), (week 2 = $1,157)</p> <p>FEAR 100 (week 1 = $1007), (week 2 = $1,081)</p> <p>FEAR 200 (week 1 = $929), (week 2 = $1,019)</p> <p>So look at all possible portfolios - a 100% bitcoin portfolio beats everything! But the top portfolio is still the FEAR 10 portfolio at week 3 - very close at +20%. The worse possible performer is the current "FOMO 200" portfolio at $917 or around -8.5%. So interesting, this suggests that the rotation method of buying losers and reshuffling may be the best strategy, whereas always buying the winners is the worst! And that despite all that, so far, just holding BTC is the best!</p> <p>So as might be expected, buying into "losers" on the weekly really pays off compared to buying "winners" but so far BTC is king. Will this be the case if alt coins regain their shine?</p> <p>Rebalancing and rebuying into week 5 gives us four new portfolios to follow:</p> <p>FOMO 100: Band, Ocean, Bancor, Energy Web Token, Hedge Trade;</p> <p>FOMO 200: DOS, Akropolis, Bora, Band, Vidt</p> <p>FEAR 100: Ampleforth, Nexo, Elrond, Elasto, True Web</p> <p>Fear 200 - Digitex, Ampleforth, ABBC, Nexo, Elrond.</p> <p>What is notable is that now the "FEAR" portfolios share quite a few choices but in particular, AMPL remains in the Fear portfolios for two weeks in a row - I'm not sure we have had that before.</p> <p>Also - a few coins jump from FEAR to FOMO or vice visa - Band jumps from FEAR to FOMO, and ELROND jumps from FOMO to FEAR!</p> <p>Stay tuned for next weeks results.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R