04-20-2021, 01:10 PM
Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (no
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/"> <img src="https://a.thumbs.redditmedia.com/1fzKoJAhaUm5uSwBOAGrc8K2wJqaN3QxDKs7Pv7ttg0.jpg" alt="Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (not 10k, 15k, 20k)" title="Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (not 10k, 15k, 20k)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><h1>Summary</h1> <p>Hi all, it's your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.</p> <p><strong>In 2017:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>ETH Dominance</strong> (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)</li> <li><strong>ETH/BTC</strong> ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)</li> <li><strong>ETH</strong> was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression</li> </ul> <p><strong>In 2021</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>ETH Dominance</strong> (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%</li> <li><strong>ETH/BTC</strong> held at 0.016</li> </ul> <p><strong>Takeaways</strong></p> <ul> <li>If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the <strong>upper 8k range</strong> <ul> <li>The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)</li> <li>In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak</li> </ul></li> <li>ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is <strong>8,511</strong></li> <li>If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at <strong>7,805</strong></li> <li>The most likely outcome is that <strong>ETH will reach ~8k this cycle</strong> and any higher is statistically unlikely.</li> </ul> <p>​</p> <h1>Details</h1> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/no0vrk9bd9u61.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=98a0be992deca64567383c1e503e9eebb82f330c">ETH Dominance</a></p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8wkntkbs89u61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=003aebf6cfedf9c0a65d6df2917bd37396b967b8">ETH/BTC ratio vs BTC Price</a></p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/mmsaxaeu99u61.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=e73d0298cb20e5ad16df5ac1749c0f8a056a16f0">ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data</a></p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/zlblrygta9u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef0ce5a0d28a524e8ced03b5e2f6ca52ed712961">Bitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ibelite"> /u/ibelite </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/"> <img src="https://a.thumbs.redditmedia.com/1fzKoJAhaUm5uSwBOAGrc8K2wJqaN3QxDKs7Pv7ttg0.jpg" alt="Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (not 10k, 15k, 20k)" title="Ethereum: I performed 3 types of analysis that show ETH can reach ~8k this cycle (not 10k, 15k, 20k)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><h1>Summary</h1> <p>Hi all, it's your friendly data science guy! There are many opinions on how high ETH can reach this cycle, so I looked at the data to get a better answer.</p> <p><strong>In 2017:</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>ETH Dominance</strong> (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) ranged from 9% to 18% (peak) to 30% (July 2017)</li> <li><strong>ETH/BTC</strong> ranged from 0.007 to 0.1 (peak) to 0.15 (June 2017)</li> <li><strong>ETH</strong> was overvalued by ~4096% in 2018 peak relative to logarithmic regression</li> </ul> <p><strong>In 2021</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>ETH Dominance</strong> (ETH/Total Crypto Cap) held at 7%</li> <li><strong>ETH/BTC</strong> held at 0.016</li> </ul> <p><strong>Takeaways</strong></p> <ul> <li>If we look at ETH Dominance and ETH/BTC tables below, the average of the likely scenarios in red box are in the <strong>upper 8k range</strong> <ul> <li>The total crypto market cap went up by 55x from 2013 peak (15B) to 2017 peak (830B)</li> <li>In 2021, it is certainly not impossible for crypto market cap to go up 5-10x from 2017 peak</li> </ul></li> <li>ETH will likely hit a resistance at 1T market cap. Given that this market cycle is faster than last cycle, its possible that we will peak out sooner in ~Aug/Sep. ETH at 1T market cap (adjusted for increased supply) in Aug is <strong>8,511</strong></li> <li>If we look at ETH Log regression in August and apply a similar over-valuation, it puts ETH at <strong>7,805</strong></li> <li>The most likely outcome is that <strong>ETH will reach ~8k this cycle</strong> and any higher is statistically unlikely.</li> </ul> <p>​</p> <h1>Details</h1> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/no0vrk9bd9u61.png?width=810&format=png&auto=webp&s=98a0be992deca64567383c1e503e9eebb82f330c">ETH Dominance</a></p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8wkntkbs89u61.png?width=829&format=png&auto=webp&s=003aebf6cfedf9c0a65d6df2917bd37396b967b8">ETH/BTC ratio vs BTC Price</a></p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/mmsaxaeu99u61.png?width=838&format=png&auto=webp&s=e73d0298cb20e5ad16df5ac1749c0f8a056a16f0">ETH Log Regression fitted to non-bubble data</a></p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/zlblrygta9u61.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=ef0ce5a0d28a524e8ced03b5e2f6ca52ed712961">Bitcoin Cycles compared (shows how current cycle is moving faster than last cycle)</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ibelite"> /u/ibelite </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/muiu5x/ethereum_i_performed_3_types_of_analysis_that/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R