05-15-2021, 12:43 AM
A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/"> <img src="https://external-preview.redd.it/Xatt-b2tkBWo-OAhqL9utbgcq_xYhOK_AIzSOx42hJo.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=1bd1356752d937a8b54cb18c2e0b2b0e23dc9dc9" alt="A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect from here" title="A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect from here" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>As far as I am aware, this type of analysis was first conducted by Benjamin Cowen on his youtube channel on May 13, 2021. I've adjusted and fine-tuned some points of analysis.</p> <h1>Current Bitcoin Cycle Compared to Previous Cycles</h1> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/sa909ulut0z61.png?width=1932&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8c4083ada0831002b7ee25257e03454eb3812b6">BTCUSD Index by Trading View</a></p> <h1>Key Considerations:</h1> <ul> <li><strong>I took the BTC's snapshots from each halving period until the market peak</strong>. An exemption is made for the first cycle in which there is no market data from the <em>genesis</em> <em>block</em> on January 09, 2009—the data starts from July 17, 2010.</li> <li><strong>All the cycle comparisons start at the most recent halving</strong> on May 11, 2020.</li> <li>As of today, <strong>we are ~368 days in the current cycle.</strong></li> </ul> <h1>Key Takeaways</h1> <ul> <li><strong>BTC's cycle tops have diminishing returns.</strong> It's much easier to climb from $1 to $100 compared to climbing from $10,000 to $100,000.</li> <li>Since entering the market, <strong>BTC's cycles are longer</strong>. Although, we only have two data points (2013 & 2017) to confirm this.</li> <li>Assuming that the market will have <strong>diminishing returns</strong>, will <strong>grow slower</strong>, and will <strong>peak later</strong>: this cycle is <em>ahead</em> of schedule, like the 2012-2013 cycle.</li> </ul> <h1>Possible Outcomes</h1> <ul> <li><strong><em>"This time is different"</em></strong>: Institutional investments, bigger money, boomer FOMO, and mainstream adoption can change the market outlook. BTC may very well defy these assumptions and <em>break the trend</em>—growing higher and faster than the 2017-18 cycle.</li> <li><strong><em>"This time is not different"</em></strong>: Equally you can argue that we may see a repeat of 2012-13 where the cycle initially outpaces the previous one but eventually slows down. It's important to note that <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2013/03/28/investing/bitcoin-cyprus/index.html">events concerning Cyprus, Greece</a> propelled the first <em>2013</em> <em>Bubble.</em></li> </ul> <p>​</p> <p>Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, <strong>It's important to remain flexible for either situation.</strong> We can only react to the market; your planning will determine how well you react. Beware of confirmation biases; we've had a crazy rally so far, devoid of 80% drops like we'd seen in past markets. That said, the market being optimistic for a long time, doesn't mean it will be at all times. Sentiment can change in an instant; but we experience change over much longer periods.</p> <p>______</p> <p>I do hope I left you with a level-headed perspective on things. If my outlook was too bearish for your likening, I'd recommend these rather bullish sentiments: <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n9k0nc/some_charts_to_help_you_where_we_are_in_the_bull/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3">here</a> and <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n53t83/here_are_some_charts_to_help_you_know_when_were/">here</a>. On the opposite spectrum, I recommend this <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n7nn40/fomo_mania_2017_2021_why_this_time_isnt_all_that/">post</a>.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/M00OSE"> /u/M00OSE </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/"> <img src="https://external-preview.redd.it/Xatt-b2tkBWo-OAhqL9utbgcq_xYhOK_AIzSOx42hJo.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=1bd1356752d937a8b54cb18c2e0b2b0e23dc9dc9" alt="A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect from here" title="A Chart to give you a better grasp of where we currently are and what we can expect from here" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>As far as I am aware, this type of analysis was first conducted by Benjamin Cowen on his youtube channel on May 13, 2021. I've adjusted and fine-tuned some points of analysis.</p> <h1>Current Bitcoin Cycle Compared to Previous Cycles</h1> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/sa909ulut0z61.png?width=1932&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8c4083ada0831002b7ee25257e03454eb3812b6">BTCUSD Index by Trading View</a></p> <h1>Key Considerations:</h1> <ul> <li><strong>I took the BTC's snapshots from each halving period until the market peak</strong>. An exemption is made for the first cycle in which there is no market data from the <em>genesis</em> <em>block</em> on January 09, 2009—the data starts from July 17, 2010.</li> <li><strong>All the cycle comparisons start at the most recent halving</strong> on May 11, 2020.</li> <li>As of today, <strong>we are ~368 days in the current cycle.</strong></li> </ul> <h1>Key Takeaways</h1> <ul> <li><strong>BTC's cycle tops have diminishing returns.</strong> It's much easier to climb from $1 to $100 compared to climbing from $10,000 to $100,000.</li> <li>Since entering the market, <strong>BTC's cycles are longer</strong>. Although, we only have two data points (2013 & 2017) to confirm this.</li> <li>Assuming that the market will have <strong>diminishing returns</strong>, will <strong>grow slower</strong>, and will <strong>peak later</strong>: this cycle is <em>ahead</em> of schedule, like the 2012-2013 cycle.</li> </ul> <h1>Possible Outcomes</h1> <ul> <li><strong><em>"This time is different"</em></strong>: Institutional investments, bigger money, boomer FOMO, and mainstream adoption can change the market outlook. BTC may very well defy these assumptions and <em>break the trend</em>—growing higher and faster than the 2017-18 cycle.</li> <li><strong><em>"This time is not different"</em></strong>: Equally you can argue that we may see a repeat of 2012-13 where the cycle initially outpaces the previous one but eventually slows down. It's important to note that <a href="https://money.cnn.com/2013/03/28/investing/bitcoin-cyprus/index.html">events concerning Cyprus, Greece</a> propelled the first <em>2013</em> <em>Bubble.</em></li> </ul> <p>​</p> <p>Regardless of whether you're bullish or bearish, <strong>It's important to remain flexible for either situation.</strong> We can only react to the market; your planning will determine how well you react. Beware of confirmation biases; we've had a crazy rally so far, devoid of 80% drops like we'd seen in past markets. That said, the market being optimistic for a long time, doesn't mean it will be at all times. Sentiment can change in an instant; but we experience change over much longer periods.</p> <p>______</p> <p>I do hope I left you with a level-headed perspective on things. If my outlook was too bearish for your likening, I'd recommend these rather bullish sentiments: <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n9k0nc/some_charts_to_help_you_where_we_are_in_the_bull/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3">here</a> and <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n53t83/here_are_some_charts_to_help_you_know_when_were/">here</a>. On the opposite spectrum, I recommend this <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/n7nn40/fomo_mania_2017_2021_why_this_time_isnt_all_that/">post</a>.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/M00OSE"> /u/M00OSE </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/nc7law/a_chart_to_give_you_a_better_grasp_of_where_we/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R