06-03-2021, 02:21 AM
MRNA ATH, sustainable? Discussion
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>MRNA current price: $193, all time high as of right now. MRNA price on Jan 1, 6 mo ago: $104.47. MRNA price 15 mo ago (March 13 2020): ~$20. On this last date the MRNA market cap was 7.5 billion. These dates/prices are chosen very intentionally and paint a simple 0th order picture. Before the covid hype MRNA was valued at $20. The total market has grown ~40% since then (comparing total market index then and now), which, all else equal would suggest a price today for MRNA of $28 – not bad. But clearly we’re not factoring in vaccine profits. Moderna was approved in the U.S. in mid December [1] and EU approval was expected soon after so vaccine profits were priced in by the Jan 1 date at $104.47.</p> <p>This price already seems too high though… depending on the sale the Moderna vaccine sells for $15 to $20 per dose [2]. They reached a deal to sell the U.S. 300 million and the EU 150 million doses, generously totaling $10 billion. A one time sale, yet their market cap has increased 10x from 7.5 bil to ~75 bil (read: overbought) [3]. The only way this makes ANY sense is if they’re counting on a significant mass of the global population > 1 billion people ( note they have “plans to make 1.4 bil doses in 2022”[2]) to purchase booster shots every year. To their credit, they announced a deal with UNICEF this morning to be a “long term” supplier and supply 45 million vaccines to them in 2022, but this is a far cry from their required numbers (this deal is why MRNA is at ATH right now). Do we really think MRNA is going to be able to bring > 1 billion doses to market and find enough willing buyers?</p> <p>I don't think so, and I think the market reflects my uncertainty. First, Moderna’s main competitor (Pfizer) has been shown to be more user friendly and have less side effects now that some 150 million have tried the two. [4,5] Furthermore, with Pfizer, J&J, Jensen and others the covid vaccine market is actually showing up to be fairly competitive. Lastly, and very importantly, a large fraction of the people who haven’t YET got the vaccine never intend to: “nearly 40% of Americans say they will definitely not or probably not get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available to them”. [6] This information, combined with the fact that MRNA stock is severely overbought looks to me like a ticking time bomb. MRNA’s boosted position seems incredibly fragile and has already tried to dump recently on three occasions (1 yr chart: dec 11, feb 19, may 4th )</p> <p>And the reason it’s going to dump is because the current bullish valuation requires MRNA to hold a practical monopoly over the vaccine market for years to come. The facts are unraveling and this is very much showing not to be the case. If they maintain their current market share at ~500 million vaccines per yr (unlikely as we will see), this translates to an adjusted market cap of 45 billion and about the $104 price we saw in January. So the base prediction given information here-to-now is that MRNA will dump to ~$110, a 40% decrease due the fact that the MRNA vaccine production monopoly was a pipe dream all along.</p> <p>And furthermore, it seems the covid treatment/prevention market may be open to even more competitors outside of vaccines. Discovered by Satoshi Omura who received a Nobel Prize for the work, Ivermectin is a cheap, not-under-patent, common drug that’s been used for forty years as a common anti-parasitic.</p> <p>In Latin America, where the U.S. fancy MRNA tech is nary to be found, the people (and the market) have settled on a different solution. “The drug has been so in demand that in May health-care workers passed out some 350,000 doses to residents in northern Bolivia. That same month, the Peruvian police seized around 20,000 bottles of animal-grade ivermectin that was sold on the black market as a treatment for human coronavirus infections. And in July, a university in Peru announced that it would produce 30,000 doses to bolster the country’s supply.” [7] This article advocates caution because, at the time “data is scant”. But that was many months ago (oct 2020), now the data is in.</p> <p>What started the rush was a demonstration that Ivermectin completely stopped covid19 replication in a petri dish [8], but would it do the same to covid in the human body? Well – what was the result of the mass buying in Peru? For the 24 peruvian states that implemented IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths quickly dropped by 75% after only 45 days. [9] “Extraneous causes of mortality reductions were ruled out.” At higher doses Ivermectin could be 80 to 99% effective at preventing Covid19 if taken preemptively. One trial done in Argentina had ~1,200 healthcare workers, ~400 did not take Ivermectin and the other ~800 did. Of the ~400 people who did not take Ivermectin over half of them fell sick with covid. Of the 800 who did take it, 0 (ZERO!) fell ill. [10,11] And lastly, meta-analysis studies: “98% of the 52 studies to date report positive effects. Random effects meta-analysis for early treatment and pooled effects shows an 81% reduction, RR 0.19 [0.09-0.39], and prophylactic use shows 85% improvement, RR 0.15 [0.09-0.25]. Mortality results show 76% lower mortality, RR 0.24 [0.14-0.42] for all treatment delays, and 84% lower, RR 0.16 [0.04-0.63] for early treatment.” [12,13]</p> <p>Remember when India was getting devastated by covid? Seems like yesterday. Where did all that news go? Well, there’s this: many Indian states offered Ivermectin to every single adult…[14]. What about Africa? Didn’t analysts predict Africa would be a huge covid disaster? Well… a lot of people in Africa actually already take regular doses of Ivermectin for parasitic diseases and these populations show much lower incidents and mortality from sars covid 19.. [15] How do you think the covid vaccine market will fare if it has to compete against an over the counter prophylaxis drugs? You do know that the vaccine Emergency Use Authorization for the MRNA vaccine is contingent upon there being no known alternatives to preventing or treating the disease, right? [16] That being said, they have applied for full authorization along with Pfizer and will probably get it so this specific point is mostly moot, but still relevant.</p> <p>So what do you guys think? Seems to me like MRNA is in a bubble and will pop, and the burst could be accentuated by an increasingly competitive market. Love to hear some people who disagree!</p> <p>I've removed all of the sources because something is on the subs source ban list, but after cross -referencing I can't figure out what. Anyways it's all public knowledge so you can bing for yourself or ask for source in comments.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/pax_developer"> /u/pax_developer </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/nqnzgw/mrna_ath_sustainable_discussion/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/nqnzgw/mrna_ath_sustainable_discussion/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>MRNA current price: $193, all time high as of right now. MRNA price on Jan 1, 6 mo ago: $104.47. MRNA price 15 mo ago (March 13 2020): ~$20. On this last date the MRNA market cap was 7.5 billion. These dates/prices are chosen very intentionally and paint a simple 0th order picture. Before the covid hype MRNA was valued at $20. The total market has grown ~40% since then (comparing total market index then and now), which, all else equal would suggest a price today for MRNA of $28 – not bad. But clearly we’re not factoring in vaccine profits. Moderna was approved in the U.S. in mid December [1] and EU approval was expected soon after so vaccine profits were priced in by the Jan 1 date at $104.47.</p> <p>This price already seems too high though… depending on the sale the Moderna vaccine sells for $15 to $20 per dose [2]. They reached a deal to sell the U.S. 300 million and the EU 150 million doses, generously totaling $10 billion. A one time sale, yet their market cap has increased 10x from 7.5 bil to ~75 bil (read: overbought) [3]. The only way this makes ANY sense is if they’re counting on a significant mass of the global population > 1 billion people ( note they have “plans to make 1.4 bil doses in 2022”[2]) to purchase booster shots every year. To their credit, they announced a deal with UNICEF this morning to be a “long term” supplier and supply 45 million vaccines to them in 2022, but this is a far cry from their required numbers (this deal is why MRNA is at ATH right now). Do we really think MRNA is going to be able to bring > 1 billion doses to market and find enough willing buyers?</p> <p>I don't think so, and I think the market reflects my uncertainty. First, Moderna’s main competitor (Pfizer) has been shown to be more user friendly and have less side effects now that some 150 million have tried the two. [4,5] Furthermore, with Pfizer, J&J, Jensen and others the covid vaccine market is actually showing up to be fairly competitive. Lastly, and very importantly, a large fraction of the people who haven’t YET got the vaccine never intend to: “nearly 40% of Americans say they will definitely not or probably not get the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes available to them”. [6] This information, combined with the fact that MRNA stock is severely overbought looks to me like a ticking time bomb. MRNA’s boosted position seems incredibly fragile and has already tried to dump recently on three occasions (1 yr chart: dec 11, feb 19, may 4th )</p> <p>And the reason it’s going to dump is because the current bullish valuation requires MRNA to hold a practical monopoly over the vaccine market for years to come. The facts are unraveling and this is very much showing not to be the case. If they maintain their current market share at ~500 million vaccines per yr (unlikely as we will see), this translates to an adjusted market cap of 45 billion and about the $104 price we saw in January. So the base prediction given information here-to-now is that MRNA will dump to ~$110, a 40% decrease due the fact that the MRNA vaccine production monopoly was a pipe dream all along.</p> <p>And furthermore, it seems the covid treatment/prevention market may be open to even more competitors outside of vaccines. Discovered by Satoshi Omura who received a Nobel Prize for the work, Ivermectin is a cheap, not-under-patent, common drug that’s been used for forty years as a common anti-parasitic.</p> <p>In Latin America, where the U.S. fancy MRNA tech is nary to be found, the people (and the market) have settled on a different solution. “The drug has been so in demand that in May health-care workers passed out some 350,000 doses to residents in northern Bolivia. That same month, the Peruvian police seized around 20,000 bottles of animal-grade ivermectin that was sold on the black market as a treatment for human coronavirus infections. And in July, a university in Peru announced that it would produce 30,000 doses to bolster the country’s supply.” [7] This article advocates caution because, at the time “data is scant”. But that was many months ago (oct 2020), now the data is in.</p> <p>What started the rush was a demonstration that Ivermectin completely stopped covid19 replication in a petri dish [8], but would it do the same to covid in the human body? Well – what was the result of the mass buying in Peru? For the 24 peruvian states that implemented IVM treatment (and Lima), excess deaths quickly dropped by 75% after only 45 days. [9] “Extraneous causes of mortality reductions were ruled out.” At higher doses Ivermectin could be 80 to 99% effective at preventing Covid19 if taken preemptively. One trial done in Argentina had ~1,200 healthcare workers, ~400 did not take Ivermectin and the other ~800 did. Of the ~400 people who did not take Ivermectin over half of them fell sick with covid. Of the 800 who did take it, 0 (ZERO!) fell ill. [10,11] And lastly, meta-analysis studies: “98% of the 52 studies to date report positive effects. Random effects meta-analysis for early treatment and pooled effects shows an 81% reduction, RR 0.19 [0.09-0.39], and prophylactic use shows 85% improvement, RR 0.15 [0.09-0.25]. Mortality results show 76% lower mortality, RR 0.24 [0.14-0.42] for all treatment delays, and 84% lower, RR 0.16 [0.04-0.63] for early treatment.” [12,13]</p> <p>Remember when India was getting devastated by covid? Seems like yesterday. Where did all that news go? Well, there’s this: many Indian states offered Ivermectin to every single adult…[14]. What about Africa? Didn’t analysts predict Africa would be a huge covid disaster? Well… a lot of people in Africa actually already take regular doses of Ivermectin for parasitic diseases and these populations show much lower incidents and mortality from sars covid 19.. [15] How do you think the covid vaccine market will fare if it has to compete against an over the counter prophylaxis drugs? You do know that the vaccine Emergency Use Authorization for the MRNA vaccine is contingent upon there being no known alternatives to preventing or treating the disease, right? [16] That being said, they have applied for full authorization along with Pfizer and will probably get it so this specific point is mostly moot, but still relevant.</p> <p>So what do you guys think? Seems to me like MRNA is in a bubble and will pop, and the burst could be accentuated by an increasingly competitive market. Love to hear some people who disagree!</p> <p>I've removed all of the sources because something is on the subs source ban list, but after cross -referencing I can't figure out what. Anyways it's all public knowledge so you can bing for yourself or ask for source in comments.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/pax_developer"> /u/pax_developer </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/nqnzgw/mrna_ath_sustainable_discussion/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/nqnzgw/mrna_ath_sustainable_discussion/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R