06-23-2021, 01:24 AM
How to do this - from a former top buyer
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Tons of posts right now from people about to cave to their emotions and make bad short-term decisions. I thought I'd try to share my experience as a former bag holder and how I wound up successful. I bought near the top in 2017. BTC was boring and "expensive" so I had a mix of shitcoins in my portfolio (I'll not throw shade on anyone in particular to protect my inbox). For a time, I was a genius. Then all of a sudden I wasn't. Eventually, I found myself down 50% and had to make some tough decisions. Here's what I did and how it turned out.</p> <p>I first had to decide if I was a long-term bull or bear on crypto. Obviously, I'm still here because I think crypto is the future. I also looked at the cyclical price history and surmised that - although it might be a while - crypto would blow by the previous highs. Rather than try to time the market, I decided to DCA.</p> <p>Three important things about that DCA.</p> <ol> <li>It was a monthly buy that I could afford as part of my household budget.</li> <li>I decided to focus on BTC and ETH (I did continue to buy LTC for a while since it was on Coinbase).</li> <li>I concerned myself with other things in order to forget (or not focus on) the DCA. It simply did its thing no matter the price.</li> </ol> <p>Looking back at my buy history, I picked up some ETH near $80. The magic of DCA is that <em>most</em> of my crypto was purchased at those low prices. Importantly, I never knew where the market was going in the short term (still don't), but through my own research, I developed a bull thesis for crypto long term.</p> <p>Now I use the <a href="https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/">rainbow chart</a> to guide my DCA. In short, I pause it in the orange and start back up in the green (just started it back up with my June purchase yesterday). I had started this before finding the rainbow chart. When your monthly buy is a tiny fraction of your total holdings, it will feel like a waste. The chart formalizes this intuition into a plan, but it's still DCA.</p> <p>I know the exact feelings many on this board are experiencing. I can empathize. <strong>IF</strong> after careful consideration, you decide you are a long-term bull like myself, I hope you'll consider the strategy above. It's boring. It's not guaranteed to work. It has worked well for me so far.</p> <p>This run may or may not be over, but I'm excited to see where we are ~1.5 years after the next BTC halving. Good luck to everyone.</p> <p>EDIT: thanks to <a href="/u/aladdinr">u/aladdinr</a> for providing the rainbow chart for ETH: <a href="https://www.blockchaincenter.net/ethereum-rainbow-chart/">https://www.blockchaincenter.net/ethereum-rainbow-chart/</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Mengerite"> /u/Mengerite </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/o5lb6v/how_to_do_this_from_a_former_top_buyer/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/o5lb6v/how_to_do_this_from_a_former_top_buyer/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Tons of posts right now from people about to cave to their emotions and make bad short-term decisions. I thought I'd try to share my experience as a former bag holder and how I wound up successful. I bought near the top in 2017. BTC was boring and "expensive" so I had a mix of shitcoins in my portfolio (I'll not throw shade on anyone in particular to protect my inbox). For a time, I was a genius. Then all of a sudden I wasn't. Eventually, I found myself down 50% and had to make some tough decisions. Here's what I did and how it turned out.</p> <p>I first had to decide if I was a long-term bull or bear on crypto. Obviously, I'm still here because I think crypto is the future. I also looked at the cyclical price history and surmised that - although it might be a while - crypto would blow by the previous highs. Rather than try to time the market, I decided to DCA.</p> <p>Three important things about that DCA.</p> <ol> <li>It was a monthly buy that I could afford as part of my household budget.</li> <li>I decided to focus on BTC and ETH (I did continue to buy LTC for a while since it was on Coinbase).</li> <li>I concerned myself with other things in order to forget (or not focus on) the DCA. It simply did its thing no matter the price.</li> </ol> <p>Looking back at my buy history, I picked up some ETH near $80. The magic of DCA is that <em>most</em> of my crypto was purchased at those low prices. Importantly, I never knew where the market was going in the short term (still don't), but through my own research, I developed a bull thesis for crypto long term.</p> <p>Now I use the <a href="https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/">rainbow chart</a> to guide my DCA. In short, I pause it in the orange and start back up in the green (just started it back up with my June purchase yesterday). I had started this before finding the rainbow chart. When your monthly buy is a tiny fraction of your total holdings, it will feel like a waste. The chart formalizes this intuition into a plan, but it's still DCA.</p> <p>I know the exact feelings many on this board are experiencing. I can empathize. <strong>IF</strong> after careful consideration, you decide you are a long-term bull like myself, I hope you'll consider the strategy above. It's boring. It's not guaranteed to work. It has worked well for me so far.</p> <p>This run may or may not be over, but I'm excited to see where we are ~1.5 years after the next BTC halving. Good luck to everyone.</p> <p>EDIT: thanks to <a href="/u/aladdinr">u/aladdinr</a> for providing the rainbow chart for ETH: <a href="https://www.blockchaincenter.net/ethereum-rainbow-chart/">https://www.blockchaincenter.net/ethereum-rainbow-chart/</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Mengerite"> /u/Mengerite </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/o5lb6v/how_to_do_this_from_a_former_top_buyer/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/o5lb6v/how_to_do_this_from_a_former_top_buyer/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R