11-13-2021, 10:30 AM
Friendly Reminder: Going Straight Up Is NOT Bullish Long Term, And Pullbacks Are Way
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/Owe7Zb4V4J7R5J1664FROvImVTxatmAL-SRBpjUiIPk.jpg" alt="Friendly Reminder: Going Straight Up Is NOT Bullish Long Term, And Pullbacks Are Way More Important Than You Think." title="Friendly Reminder: Going Straight Up Is NOT Bullish Long Term, And Pullbacks Are Way More Important Than You Think." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Explaining this is especially important for the new investors on this sub, those who are worried about the recent price action. So, let’s look at some numbers first.</p> <p>We will be talking about the price of BTC this year. We are focussing on BTC because it largely decides the market sentiment. Technically speaking, Bitcoin can be considered as a fairly accurate market index for crypto, just like we have S&P 500 for stock markets.</p> <p>From 1st January to 14 April the price increased from $ 29,331 to $62,959 a <strong>114.65%</strong> growth in <strong>3.5 months</strong>.</p> <p>From 20th May to 11th Nov the price increased from $ 40,526 to $64,774 a <strong>59.8%</strong> growth in <strong>5.7 months</strong>.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/5t3nskpfb7z71.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3b8b6d82b4816644cc93d327532f26aba3d84bc">Regression comparing the Q1 growth with May-Nov growth</a></p> <p>As we can see, Bitcoin rallies like crazy during Q1, and the growth clearly looks unsustainable. And then what happens? We eventually see a 50% crash in May and the whole market tanks.</p> <p>Now let us compare that to the rally from May to November. The angle this regression makes is 43°, which is <strong>substantially less steep</strong> than 59°. This is undeniably more organic than last time. So yes, this time <strong>it is different,</strong> not only that <strong>this time it is better.</strong></p> <p>The occasional pullbacks like the ones we are experiencing today are incredibly important, it helps in keeping the markets stable and sustainable for a long term rally. When we say it "shakes off" the paper hands, it also means that the capital the short-termed traders lose flows into the market, making the said asset stronger. While the +60% growth in 6 months may seem slower than +115% in 3.5 months, but remember that <strong>it's stronger.</strong> Bitcoin is far more likely to reach $100k now, than ever before. Not only that, slow and steady growth means that the market is finally maturing and hence, less volatility which means more institutional and retail adoption.</p> <p>Note: In the regression plotted in the above graph, the Pearson's R is well above 0.7 in both cases: 0.91 & 0.87, which generally means that the growth can be accurately modelled by simple regression. Remember, more complex rainbow graphs ≠ better analysis.</p> <p>So, all-in-all, I would say we are definitely headed to a $100k till EOY, all we need is some patience and conviction.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/AlphaHuman304"> /u/AlphaHuman304 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/Owe7Zb4V4J7R5J1664FROvImVTxatmAL-SRBpjUiIPk.jpg" alt="Friendly Reminder: Going Straight Up Is NOT Bullish Long Term, And Pullbacks Are Way More Important Than You Think." title="Friendly Reminder: Going Straight Up Is NOT Bullish Long Term, And Pullbacks Are Way More Important Than You Think." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Explaining this is especially important for the new investors on this sub, those who are worried about the recent price action. So, let’s look at some numbers first.</p> <p>We will be talking about the price of BTC this year. We are focussing on BTC because it largely decides the market sentiment. Technically speaking, Bitcoin can be considered as a fairly accurate market index for crypto, just like we have S&P 500 for stock markets.</p> <p>From 1st January to 14 April the price increased from $ 29,331 to $62,959 a <strong>114.65%</strong> growth in <strong>3.5 months</strong>.</p> <p>From 20th May to 11th Nov the price increased from $ 40,526 to $64,774 a <strong>59.8%</strong> growth in <strong>5.7 months</strong>.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/5t3nskpfb7z71.png?width=990&format=png&auto=webp&s=c3b8b6d82b4816644cc93d327532f26aba3d84bc">Regression comparing the Q1 growth with May-Nov growth</a></p> <p>As we can see, Bitcoin rallies like crazy during Q1, and the growth clearly looks unsustainable. And then what happens? We eventually see a 50% crash in May and the whole market tanks.</p> <p>Now let us compare that to the rally from May to November. The angle this regression makes is 43°, which is <strong>substantially less steep</strong> than 59°. This is undeniably more organic than last time. So yes, this time <strong>it is different,</strong> not only that <strong>this time it is better.</strong></p> <p>The occasional pullbacks like the ones we are experiencing today are incredibly important, it helps in keeping the markets stable and sustainable for a long term rally. When we say it "shakes off" the paper hands, it also means that the capital the short-termed traders lose flows into the market, making the said asset stronger. While the +60% growth in 6 months may seem slower than +115% in 3.5 months, but remember that <strong>it's stronger.</strong> Bitcoin is far more likely to reach $100k now, than ever before. Not only that, slow and steady growth means that the market is finally maturing and hence, less volatility which means more institutional and retail adoption.</p> <p>Note: In the regression plotted in the above graph, the Pearson's R is well above 0.7 in both cases: 0.91 & 0.87, which generally means that the growth can be accurately modelled by simple regression. Remember, more complex rainbow graphs ≠ better analysis.</p> <p>So, all-in-all, I would say we are definitely headed to a $100k till EOY, all we need is some patience and conviction.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/AlphaHuman304"> /u/AlphaHuman304 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/qsh75p/friendly_reminder_going_straight_up_is_not/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R