02-09-2022, 06:48 PM
With Cathie Wood predicting BTC to hit $1 million by 2030, it's worthwhile rememberi
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Cathie Wood released her Big Ideas for 2022 and she predicts that BTC will hit $1 million by 2030. </p> <p>I'm bullish on BTC, but I don't think she is the best source to get her information from, <a href="https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ark-invests-tesla-valuation-model-is-the-new-laughing-stock-amongst-investors-3dc7d9b7e8d">just look at her modelling for Tesla</a>:</p> <p>​</p> <blockquote> <p>An assumption of no equity raises (<em>$0</em> CAPEX) despite an assumption of Tesla opening no less than <em>25</em> automotive manufacturing facilities within the coming four years, meaning production capacity of <em>5</em> to <em>10</em> million electric vehicles. </p> <p>In the same ballpark as the above, no debt raises either, despite growing revenue to <em>$700 billion</em> in the bull case (<em>$300 billion</em> in the bear case). They are even assumed to pay back <em>$14 billion</em> of debt in the period. </p> <p>Blatant misuse of Monte Carlo simulations, including using them to average a price target instead of using them to provide a distribution of outcomes. </p> <p>Broad misunderstanding of the structure of and regulatory hurdles in the auto insurance market. </p> <p>Bull case net revenue of <em>$327 billion</em> from Robo-taxis (autonomous ride-hails) in <em>2025</em>. </p> <p>Overstating the effect of “Wright’s Law” of declining production costs. Despite gross margins decreasing from <em>2018</em> to <em>2019</em> and being roughly unchanged from <em>2019</em> to <em>2020</em>, ARK assumes they will average higher by <em>80 percent</em> over the coming five years as a result of Wright’s Law.</p> </blockquote> <p>The most shocking bit of analysis, however, is that her bear case (i.e. a bad scenario) would still be 60% higher than Tesla's current price. So she's saying that you're almost guaranteed to make money on the stock. Ridiculous. </p> <p>It seems that a lot of her reasoning is from picking a price target and then creating a rationale after the fact. If you want to read more, <a href="https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ark-invests-tesla-valuation-model-is-the-new-laughing-stock-amongst-investors-3dc7d9b7e8d">please do so here</a>, the author Asger Bruhn writes very well. </p> <p>Tl;dr: Be bullish on BTC, but not because of Cathie Wood</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Laughingboy14"> /u/Laughingboy14 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/soa78a/with_cathie_wood_predicting_btc_to_hit_1_million/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/soa78a/with_cathie_wood_predicting_btc_to_hit_1_million/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Cathie Wood released her Big Ideas for 2022 and she predicts that BTC will hit $1 million by 2030. </p> <p>I'm bullish on BTC, but I don't think she is the best source to get her information from, <a href="https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ark-invests-tesla-valuation-model-is-the-new-laughing-stock-amongst-investors-3dc7d9b7e8d">just look at her modelling for Tesla</a>:</p> <p>​</p> <blockquote> <p>An assumption of no equity raises (<em>$0</em> CAPEX) despite an assumption of Tesla opening no less than <em>25</em> automotive manufacturing facilities within the coming four years, meaning production capacity of <em>5</em> to <em>10</em> million electric vehicles. </p> <p>In the same ballpark as the above, no debt raises either, despite growing revenue to <em>$700 billion</em> in the bull case (<em>$300 billion</em> in the bear case). They are even assumed to pay back <em>$14 billion</em> of debt in the period. </p> <p>Blatant misuse of Monte Carlo simulations, including using them to average a price target instead of using them to provide a distribution of outcomes. </p> <p>Broad misunderstanding of the structure of and regulatory hurdles in the auto insurance market. </p> <p>Bull case net revenue of <em>$327 billion</em> from Robo-taxis (autonomous ride-hails) in <em>2025</em>. </p> <p>Overstating the effect of “Wright’s Law” of declining production costs. Despite gross margins decreasing from <em>2018</em> to <em>2019</em> and being roughly unchanged from <em>2019</em> to <em>2020</em>, ARK assumes they will average higher by <em>80 percent</em> over the coming five years as a result of Wright’s Law.</p> </blockquote> <p>The most shocking bit of analysis, however, is that her bear case (i.e. a bad scenario) would still be 60% higher than Tesla's current price. So she's saying that you're almost guaranteed to make money on the stock. Ridiculous. </p> <p>It seems that a lot of her reasoning is from picking a price target and then creating a rationale after the fact. If you want to read more, <a href="https://medium.datadriveninvestor.com/ark-invests-tesla-valuation-model-is-the-new-laughing-stock-amongst-investors-3dc7d9b7e8d">please do so here</a>, the author Asger Bruhn writes very well. </p> <p>Tl;dr: Be bullish on BTC, but not because of Cathie Wood</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Laughingboy14"> /u/Laughingboy14 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/soa78a/with_cathie_wood_predicting_btc_to_hit_1_million/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/soa78a/with_cathie_wood_predicting_btc_to_hit_1_million/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R