02-22-2023, 05:08 PM
Many people here say that we are in a bull market, but this is not a bull market - a
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/_Wk1qQD4ItvT7-YDf79EQT2adTvg5GiIv8kTCNis70c.jpg" alt="Many people here say that we are in a bull market, but this is not a bull market - at least not yet" title="Many people here say that we are in a bull market, but this is not a bull market - at least not yet" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>A common view here is that we are now in a bull market. This is stated frequently in the Daily General Discussion post, for instance.</p> <p>Coinbase defines bull and bear markets as follows: <em>“Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial growth are called bull markets. Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial declines are called bear markets”.</em></p> <p>To put it in simple terms, a bull market is a rising market, while a bear market is a declining one. <strong>For a bull market to be called, we need substantial upward swings over a long period of time.</strong> Let's evaluate both.</p> <p>​</p> <p>​</p> <h1>Substantial upward swings? Maybe, but probably not</h1> <p>One could argue that we had a substantial upward swing. This is the key argument of the bull market callers, as they state that Bitcoin rallied a little over 50% from the lows.</p> <p>Yet this swing is still rather 'mediocre'. Bitcoin is 65% down from all time high <em>and</em> currently under the 200-week moving average. From a historical perspective, that is still deep within bear territory. Moreover, it was really one big move, and not multiple upward swings, although that is arguable.</p> <h1>Longer period of time? Nope, not yet!</h1> <p>But to say that we have had substantial upward swings <em>over a longer period of time</em> would be overstating the current rise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is only working on its second green month in a row. Bitcoin would need a lot of follow through over a longer period to officially be in a bull market.</p> <p>Remember, during a typical bear market, 50%+ pumps are very common. Take the fall from December 2017 to the low December 2018 as an example. We saw five pumps of 40% or more. The three largest were in order of time: 54%, 100%, and 55%.</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/jdkgchx53rja1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=d630ae61f5b28b1b1fbc4303e5252d2fb9c69dc5">The 2017-2018 bear market, with 5 retracements of 40% or more</a></p> <p>And those pumps were all made before we finally reached the bear market bottom. During the current bear market, this is only our first 50%+ pump as 2022 has been particularly brutal. This is why bull/bear charts look like this:</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/gbgjqr7d3rja1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6d3304b9302962f00d56fb625d4633aeccc255a">Bull markets (green) and bear markets (red)</a></p> <p>The red parts often include 50% rallies.</p> <h1>To conclude</h1> <p><strong>We have had a bullish impulse, but we would need to see lots of follow through over a longer period of time to be in a bull market.</strong> This period MIGHT be the start of a new bull market and eventually be counted as part of the bull, but it could also be a mere rally in a bear market that lasts longer. Time will tell.</p> <p>Or in other words, the current status is:</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/kg29np7t3rja1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=311fa7e99e616fe59a8c1d8eaf81b8414f360f46">https://preview.redd.it/kg29np7t3rja1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=311fa7e99e616fe59a8c1d8eaf81b8414f360f46</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Beyonderr"> /u/Beyonderr </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/_Wk1qQD4ItvT7-YDf79EQT2adTvg5GiIv8kTCNis70c.jpg" alt="Many people here say that we are in a bull market, but this is not a bull market - at least not yet" title="Many people here say that we are in a bull market, but this is not a bull market - at least not yet" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>A common view here is that we are now in a bull market. This is stated frequently in the Daily General Discussion post, for instance.</p> <p>Coinbase defines bull and bear markets as follows: <em>“Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial growth are called bull markets. Markets experiencing sustained and/or substantial declines are called bear markets”.</em></p> <p>To put it in simple terms, a bull market is a rising market, while a bear market is a declining one. <strong>For a bull market to be called, we need substantial upward swings over a long period of time.</strong> Let's evaluate both.</p> <p>​</p> <p>​</p> <h1>Substantial upward swings? Maybe, but probably not</h1> <p>One could argue that we had a substantial upward swing. This is the key argument of the bull market callers, as they state that Bitcoin rallied a little over 50% from the lows.</p> <p>Yet this swing is still rather 'mediocre'. Bitcoin is 65% down from all time high <em>and</em> currently under the 200-week moving average. From a historical perspective, that is still deep within bear territory. Moreover, it was really one big move, and not multiple upward swings, although that is arguable.</p> <h1>Longer period of time? Nope, not yet!</h1> <p>But to say that we have had substantial upward swings <em>over a longer period of time</em> would be overstating the current rise of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is only working on its second green month in a row. Bitcoin would need a lot of follow through over a longer period to officially be in a bull market.</p> <p>Remember, during a typical bear market, 50%+ pumps are very common. Take the fall from December 2017 to the low December 2018 as an example. We saw five pumps of 40% or more. The three largest were in order of time: 54%, 100%, and 55%.</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/jdkgchx53rja1.png?width=1438&format=png&auto=webp&s=d630ae61f5b28b1b1fbc4303e5252d2fb9c69dc5">The 2017-2018 bear market, with 5 retracements of 40% or more</a></p> <p>And those pumps were all made before we finally reached the bear market bottom. During the current bear market, this is only our first 50%+ pump as 2022 has been particularly brutal. This is why bull/bear charts look like this:</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/gbgjqr7d3rja1.png?width=940&format=png&auto=webp&s=e6d3304b9302962f00d56fb625d4633aeccc255a">Bull markets (green) and bear markets (red)</a></p> <p>The red parts often include 50% rallies.</p> <h1>To conclude</h1> <p><strong>We have had a bullish impulse, but we would need to see lots of follow through over a longer period of time to be in a bull market.</strong> This period MIGHT be the start of a new bull market and eventually be counted as part of the bull, but it could also be a mere rally in a bear market that lasts longer. Time will tell.</p> <p>Or in other words, the current status is:</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/kg29np7t3rja1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=311fa7e99e616fe59a8c1d8eaf81b8414f360f46">https://preview.redd.it/kg29np7t3rja1.png?width=1279&format=png&auto=webp&s=311fa7e99e616fe59a8c1d8eaf81b8414f360f46</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Beyonderr"> /u/Beyonderr </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/119143v/many_people_here_say_that_we_are_in_a_bull_market/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>