07-21-2020, 04:41 AM
Crypto trading experiment - FOMO vs FEAR - Week 1 (start)
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Ok, so here is a crypto trading experiment I have been working on – FOMO vs FEAR. I actually started it 4-5 days ago, but only now have enough Karma to post.</p> <p>Have you ever seen a crypto like LINK doing a monster bull run and wondered whether it is insane to buy at that point, or perhaps you think you could trade by simply buying into coins that have been pummelled in price, knowing that at some stage the price might recover.</p> <p>Well let’s put it to the test. Using blockfolio I’m going to be putting in to place an experiment over the next ten weeks or so.</p> <p>These are the rules:</p> <p>I have five portfolios running against each other – no real money, just blockfolio based. Each starts with $1000</p> <ol> <li><p>A control portfolio holding only bitcoin;</p></li> <li><p>A “FOMO” portfolio, holding the top five % performers over the last week in the top 100 cryptos on CMC (ignoring anything with volume below $1M);</p></li> <li><p>Another “FOMO” portfolio, as above, but looking at the top five in the top 200 and ignoring volume below $250k);</p></li> <li><p>A “FEAR” portfolio, holding the five bottom % performers over the last week in the top 100 cryptos on CMC (ignoring anything with volume below $1M);</p></li> <li><p>Another “FEAR” portfolio, the five bottom, but looking at the top 200 (and ignoring volume below $250k).</p></li> </ol> <p>Each week, each portfolio sells, and buys into another five coins based on the metrics above.</p> <p>I have previously carried this out using daily performance, and rebalancing daily, but that created distortions with things like new binance listing spikes and so on. I hope the weekly recording, combined with looking at the top / bottom 100 vs 200 will give us an idea of whether there is any useful strategy here.</p> <p>My thesis is that the FOMO coins will initially surge and do better, but that the FEAR coins will be a better buy towards the end each week / trading period.</p> <p>I put this into place towards the end of last week and results are already running. I’ll do a detailed breakdown next week but so far we have the following. Each started with $1,000 and I have included the current values (after 4.5 days of being that position).</p> <ol> <li><p>BTC = $992.60 ( -1%)</p></li> <li><p>FOMO top 100: AOA, ELR, KAVA, CHSB, LINK = $991.54 (-1%)</p></li> <li><p>FOMO top 200: AOA, NIM, ERD, ANKR, MOF = $1,093 (+9%)</p></li> <li><p>FEAR top 100: DOGE, AMPL, QNT, COMP HEDG = $1,166 (+17%)</p></li> <li><p>FEAR top 200: XNS, NULS, DOGE, QNT, AMPL = $1,168 (+17%)</p></li> </ol> <p>I ran this experiment for three weeks previously and it gave very interesting results (similar to those above - the "fear" coins always won) but I had made some recording errors so wanted to adjust and come back.</p> <p>Any predictions on how this will go? Do you see any problems with my recording and rules? Are there any other portfolios you would suggest in a similar experiment?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Ok, so here is a crypto trading experiment I have been working on – FOMO vs FEAR. I actually started it 4-5 days ago, but only now have enough Karma to post.</p> <p>Have you ever seen a crypto like LINK doing a monster bull run and wondered whether it is insane to buy at that point, or perhaps you think you could trade by simply buying into coins that have been pummelled in price, knowing that at some stage the price might recover.</p> <p>Well let’s put it to the test. Using blockfolio I’m going to be putting in to place an experiment over the next ten weeks or so.</p> <p>These are the rules:</p> <p>I have five portfolios running against each other – no real money, just blockfolio based. Each starts with $1000</p> <ol> <li><p>A control portfolio holding only bitcoin;</p></li> <li><p>A “FOMO” portfolio, holding the top five % performers over the last week in the top 100 cryptos on CMC (ignoring anything with volume below $1M);</p></li> <li><p>Another “FOMO” portfolio, as above, but looking at the top five in the top 200 and ignoring volume below $250k);</p></li> <li><p>A “FEAR” portfolio, holding the five bottom % performers over the last week in the top 100 cryptos on CMC (ignoring anything with volume below $1M);</p></li> <li><p>Another “FEAR” portfolio, the five bottom, but looking at the top 200 (and ignoring volume below $250k).</p></li> </ol> <p>Each week, each portfolio sells, and buys into another five coins based on the metrics above.</p> <p>I have previously carried this out using daily performance, and rebalancing daily, but that created distortions with things like new binance listing spikes and so on. I hope the weekly recording, combined with looking at the top / bottom 100 vs 200 will give us an idea of whether there is any useful strategy here.</p> <p>My thesis is that the FOMO coins will initially surge and do better, but that the FEAR coins will be a better buy towards the end each week / trading period.</p> <p>I put this into place towards the end of last week and results are already running. I’ll do a detailed breakdown next week but so far we have the following. Each started with $1,000 and I have included the current values (after 4.5 days of being that position).</p> <ol> <li><p>BTC = $992.60 ( -1%)</p></li> <li><p>FOMO top 100: AOA, ELR, KAVA, CHSB, LINK = $991.54 (-1%)</p></li> <li><p>FOMO top 200: AOA, NIM, ERD, ANKR, MOF = $1,093 (+9%)</p></li> <li><p>FEAR top 100: DOGE, AMPL, QNT, COMP HEDG = $1,166 (+17%)</p></li> <li><p>FEAR top 200: XNS, NULS, DOGE, QNT, AMPL = $1,168 (+17%)</p></li> </ol> <p>I ran this experiment for three weeks previously and it gave very interesting results (similar to those above - the "fear" coins always won) but I had made some recording errors so wanted to adjust and come back.</p> <p>Any predictions on how this will go? Do you see any problems with my recording and rules? Are there any other portfolios you would suggest in a similar experiment?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> Kind Regards R