01-12-2021, 05:42 PM
I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (THREE YEAR REPORT)
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/PhDljmQpMg7TnPYAUVX0AJRuj1olOL6e1tUhaYqRxMI.jpg" alt="I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (THREE YEAR REPORT)" title="I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (THREE YEAR REPORT)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/vndx66w0ipa61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=212832bbf8764c6de0c5c63c89f5f0d359bce57e">EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – THREE YEAR REPORT - Down -49%</a></p> <p><strong><em>The full blog post with all the tables is</em></strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-3-year-report/"><strong><em>here</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong></p> <p><strong>tl;dr</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>MOON USE CASE</strong>: <em>30 Moons to the first person to name the artists and titles of the hidden songs that any self respecting New Year's Eve party would have on its playlist.</em></li> <li><strong>What's this all about?</strong> I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting monthly for nearly three years. Did the same in 2019 and 2020. This is the OG 2018 Top Ten Three Year Report. <strong><em>Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments</em></strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/about/"><strong><em>here</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong></li> <li><strong>December</strong> - <strong>BTC</strong> and <strong>LTC</strong> dominate. <strong>XRP</strong> losing almost 2/3rds of its value. For the second straight month, stocks hit ATH.</li> <li><strong>Overall since Jan. 2018</strong> - Not even close: <strong>BTC</strong> crushing the competition, crushing the S&P over the same time period<strong>. ETH</strong> becomes second 2018 Top Ten crypto to break even. 2018 portfolio is down -49% in three years.</li> <li><strong>2018+2019+2020 Combined Top Ten Portfolios are returning 87%.</strong> </li> </ul> <h2>Month Thirty-Six and Year Three Report – Down 49%</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/cpwdzavtjpa61.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd3715ffacf4240f3a8d086e99cc4575b570cfe9">2018 Top Ten Summary - Year Three of the Index Fund Experiment </a></p> <p>First things first: wishing everyone a very happy and healthy 2021!</p> <p>Okay, let’s dive in. After all the crypto build up in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">November</a>, December seemed to explode: massive developments seemed to be happening by the hour. On the positive side, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> dominated the field, reached a new all time high, and received a ton of attention, driving up the price +$10k per <strong>BTC</strong> in just one month. On the negative side, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-338">news from the SEC</a> late in December caused XRP’s price to absolutely plummet.</p> <p>With this month’s update, we wrap up <strong>three years</strong> of tracking this group of cryptos! <strong>Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, IOTA, NEM, Dash,</strong> and <strong>Stellar</strong> – some famous, some forgotten, some fading, some resurging – regardless of how we might feel about these cryptos today, these were some of the most popular, most talked about, and most promising coins on <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 1st, 2018</a> (or at the very least the most valued by market cap).</p> <p>Three years later: <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has been joined by <strong>Ethereum</strong> as one of only two cryptos to have at least broken even (<strong>Bitcoin</strong> handily, <strong>ETH</strong> just barely). And after nearly three years of waiting, <strong>BTC</strong> is now easily beating the returns of the S&P 500 over the same time period (much more on that below). </p> <h2>Question of the month year:</h2> <h4>In March 2020, Bitcoin hit a low of approximately:</h4> <p>A) $2,500</p> <p>B) $3,200</p> <p>C) $3,800</p> <p>D) $5,100</p> <p><em>Scroll down for the answer.</em></p> <h2>December Rankings and Three Year Movement Report</h2> <p>Lots of movement in December, mostly down, as altcoins struggled to keep up with <strong>Bitcoin</strong>. The one upward exception, <strong>NEM</strong> continued to surprise by gaining one place, up from #19 to #18. As mentioned in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">last month’s update</a>, this is possibly related to the 1:1 <a href="https://nemplatform.com/symbol-migration/">XEM/Symbol Airdrop</a> that’s coming in February 2021.</p> <p>Any other movement was downward this month: after battling <strong>Tether</strong> for third place for much of the second half of the year, <strong>XRP</strong> dropped one spot to #4. <strong>Bitcoin Cash</strong> fell from #5 to #6, and after nearly clawing itself back into the Top Ten, <strong>Stellar</strong> came back to earth a bit in December, sliding from #11 to #15. </p> <p>The biggest drops were <strong>Dash</strong> (down six places to #31) and <strong>IOTA</strong> (down nine places to #37).</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/v2xmpnqflpa61.png?width=417&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e0f5b4310a9d146fa9b173168c4b57d87029e6b">60% Top Ten retention rate after three years</a></p> <p><strong>Top Ten dropouts since January 2018:</strong> After three years of the 2018 Top Ten experiment 40% of the cryptos that <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">started in the Top Ten</a> have dropped out. <strong>NEM, Dash, IOTA</strong>, and <strong>Stellar</strong> have been replaced by <strong>Binance Coin, Tether</strong>, <strong>LINK</strong>, and most recently, <strong>DOT</strong>. </p> <p>Or, using a glass half-full lens: <em>over the last three years, 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptocurrencies (</em><strong><em>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, ADA, LTC</em></strong><em>) have managed to maintain their relative position in the market</em>. </p> <p>Interestingly, even with slightly different players, this is the same percentage (60%) of position holders as the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">2019 Top Ten Portfolio</a>. And the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">2020 Top Ten Experiment</a> group has performed only marginally better (70% remaining/30% dropout rate). </p> <p>Given the unpredictability and progress in the cryptocurrency space over the last three years, a 60% retention rate for the 2018 Top Ten is pretty remarkable.</p> <p><strong>Which held and which lost the most ground compared to its peers?</strong> Thirty six months in, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has been the most steady crypto, never losing its frontrunner status, always locked in the #1 position. </p> <p><strong>IOTA</strong> has dropped the most in the last three years and its final 2020 ranking of #37 places it in danger of becoming the first 2018 Top Ten crypto to fall out of the <em>Top Forty</em>. As a reminder, <strong>IOTA</strong> was ranked #7 three years ago. </p> <h2>December Winners and Losers</h2> <p><strong><em>December Winners</em></strong> – <strong>Bitcoin,</strong> increasing a massive +51% in one month. Close behind, <strong>Litecoin</strong> quietly gained +44% despite limited buzz.</p> <p><strong><em>December Losers</em></strong> – An extremely tough month for <strong>XRP</strong> which lost nearly two-thirds of its value, finishing the month down -63%. <strong>XLM</strong> got knocked around as well, losing one-third of its value in December, finishing the month down -33%.</p> <h2>Three Year Tally of Monthly Winners and Losers</h2> <p>After three years, the table below will give you a good sense of the winners and losers over the first thirty six months of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/3ye0qxtulpa61.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=acfeeed38f797dfa390be34acf2c4ff1af9e5b5d">Three years of Ws and Ls</a></p> <p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> reigns supreme here as well, with the most monthly wins (10). <strong>Cardano</strong> has the second most victories, racking up 6 monthly wins in three years. <strong>NEM</strong> has lost 8 months, the most out of the 2018 Top Ten group. And <strong>Bitcoin</strong> is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month yet since January 2018 (although it has come close a couple of times).</p> <h2>Three Year Wrap Up – BTC returns crush S&P, BTC and ETH only cryptos in green, overall portfolio breaks -50%, and IOTA in last place.</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/g3xrlqqylpa61.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e322b79d4c524a78f3b495dca612cfed3841d03">Mostly red, but signs of life</a></p> <p>Just <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35">last month</a>, it happened: for the first time in the nearly three years since the beginning of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, I was happy to report that the $100 invested into <strong>Bitcoin</strong> on January 1st, 2018 was returning more than if invested in the US stock market as measured by the S&P 500. </p> <p>Because December 2020 was another strong month for <strong>BTC</strong>, the gap has significantly increased: since January 2018, the S&P is up +41%. <strong>Bitcoin?</strong> +123%. </p> <p>Put another way: <em>three years later, $100 into</em> <strong><em>Bitcoin</em></strong> <em>on January 1st, 2018 is worth</em> <strong><em>$223</em></strong> <em>compared to</em> <strong><em>$141</em></strong> <em>had it been redirected to the S&P on</em> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYCyCaK_5k"><em>New Year’s Day</em></a><em>, 2018.</em></p> <p>This has NOT been an easy or straightforward road for <strong>Bitcoin</strong>. At one point, <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/">a year into the Experiment</a>, <strong>BTC</strong> was down -74% compared to an S&P return of 1.2% at the time.</p> <p>At the three year point in the 2018 Experiment, <strong>ETH</strong> joins <strong>Bitcoin</strong> as the only other crypto in the green: <strong>Ethereum</strong> is now +2% since January 2018.</p> <p>A distant third, but apparently next in line to break even, is <strong>Litecoin</strong>, currently down -42%. </p> <p>The 2018 Top Ten portfolio as a whole? <em>Still down -49% since January 2018.</em></p> <p>Pop that Champaign, time for a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M&ob=av3e">celebration</a>! </p> <p>Maybe not full scale ticker tape parade time just yet, but this marks the psychologically important “halfway back” point for the 2018 Top Ten Experiment and represents the highest overall return since <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-four/">April 2018</a>. Although not pretty, the direction is encouraging: check out the Monthly ROI table below for a bird’s eye view of the 2018 Top Ten ROI journey.</p> <p>At the bottom are a couple of cryptos that have lost at least 90% of their value in three years: <strong>Dash</strong> is down -90% and <strong>IOTA</strong> has lost -91% over the life of the experiment. The initial $100 invested in <strong>IOTA</strong> three years ago is worth $8.21 today.</p> <h2>Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/cb71mol3mpa61.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1165b4f7e01f9ea2ba66864a8cee89d9535d36b">Quite a ride - three years of market cap</a></p> <p>After gaining a massive $182B in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">November</a>, the total crypto market cap added another $193B in December. For the second month in a row this represents <em>a higher level than when the 2018 Experiment started three years ago</em>. Up +35% since January 2018, it is approaching the 41% return of the S&P over the same time period.</p> <h2>Bitcoin dominance:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/3b6pzz88mpa61.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=c021c76ebf9af18364f0c6b06492583df239c5be">Nearly 40% range in BitDom during the life of the Experiment</a></p> <p>A big, big leap for BitDom this month, ending 2020 at 70.4%. For context, this is just barely below the Experiment’s record level of 70.5% back in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-twenty/">September 2019</a>. It will be interesting to see how much higher <strong>BTC</strong> dominance can go. Since the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">beginning of the experiment</a>, the range of <strong>Bitcoin</strong> dominance has been quite wide: from the current 70% high to a low of 33% in the first month of the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">2018 Experiment</a>.</p> <h2>Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/v2cdbvqfmpa61.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1c4c1c3c7b8a55302bbea94466e70b48ddfd045">Half way back?</a></p> <p>The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $78 bucks in December and finally arrived at the halfway back point. If, after three years, I cashed out of all the cryptos today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $513, down -49% from <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 2018</a>.</p> <p>For some perspective, here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, over the last three years:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/13jo9bcimpa61.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=988a450643bb47cd432e6abc48d41640f11c7499">Blood blood blood</a></p> <p>Although the three year return of the 2018 Top Ten are abysmal, there are reasons I <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcjzHMhBtf0">don’t stop believing</a> we could eventually see green: the portfolio is trending in a positive direction, the -49% is a level that hasn’t been seen since <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-four/">April 2018</a>, and the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio is a far cry from the absolute bottom (back in January 2019 when it was down <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/">-88%</a>). Whether or not <strong>BTC</strong> is going to single handedly have to drag the entire portfolio up without any real help from the alts remains to be seen…</p> <p>So the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is down -49%. After repeating the Top Ten Experiment in <strong><em>2019</em></strong> and <strong><em>2020</em></strong> (<a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2021/">and just recently, again for 2021!</a>), how are the other Experiments holding up? Let’s take a look:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">2019 Top Ten Experiment</a>: up +169% (total value $2,693)</li> <li><a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">2020 Top Ten Experiment</a>: up +139% (total value $2,395)</li> </ul> <p>So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom <em>bottom</em> line: </p> <p><strong>After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $5,601</strong> ($513+ $2,693 +$2,395).</p> <p><strong>That’s up about +87%</strong> on the three combined portfolios, compared to +72% <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35">last month</a>. </p> <p>Here’s a table to help visualize:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/fsqk3zrmmpa61.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=827cbf180d5b3788800c867340fd144aee37d68b">The combined Top Ten portfolios: ending the year strong</a></p> <p><strong><em>That’s an +87% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years</em></strong>. </p> <p>But surely I would have done even better if I went all in on one crypto, right? </p> <p>Let’s take a look. Only five cryptos have begun each of the last three years in the Top Ten: <strong>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH,</strong> and <strong>LTC</strong>. Which one wins?</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/1nu95x3smpa61.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=14c1c38ed7d030f7d0b004f72defab5a2fdaaf1e">Three year club comparison</a></p> <p><strong>BTC</strong> FTW. Going all in on <strong>Bitcoin</strong> with $3,000 USD (dropped in $1k chunks every New Year’s Day since 2018) would have yielded +358%, turning that $3k into over $13,730. <strong>ETH</strong>, the best performing of the Three Year Club <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">last month</a>, comes in second place at the end of 2020 (+310%). </p> <p><strong>XRP</strong>, while still up in 2020, would have been the worst three year all-in bet, at -31%. And at this point in the Experiments, the +87% gains of the Top Ten Index Fund approach is outperforming a hypothetical all-in investment in both <strong>XRP</strong> and <strong>BCH</strong> by a healthy margin.</p> <h2>Comparison to S&P 500:</h2> <p>I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index continued upward reaching yet another new all time high in December. It ended 2020 up +41% since January 2018. </p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/k11m37mympa61.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff5de3288c2b651628114ac845ca2333ab161b4">S&P - up 41% in three years</a></p> <p>The initial $1k investment into crypto on <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 1st, 2018</a> would have been worth about $1410 had it been redirected to the S&P.</p> <p>But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:</p> <ul> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1410 today</li> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1500 today</li> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1160 today</li> </ul> <p>Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom <em>bottom</em> line for a similar approach with the S&P: </p> <p><strong>After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $4,070.</strong></p> <p>That is up <strong>+36%</strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">since January 2018</a> compared to a <strong>+87%</strong> gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. </p> <p>You can compare against five individual coins (<strong>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH,</strong> and <strong>LTC)</strong> by using the table above if you want. The key takeaway? The S&P 500 is currently outperforming <strong>XRP</strong> and is returning about 5% more than <strong>Bitcoin Cash.</strong> The ROI is much better with <strong>BTC, ETH, LTC</strong> and the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio approach.</p> <p>Here’s a table summarizing the three year ROI comparison between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/wij8ry04npa61.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b46509921c2626769a94dafd3e5940c29138559">Crypto - widening the gap</a></p> <p>That’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. five monthly victories for crypto in 2020. But the momentum is clearly on crypto’s side and the 51% gap is the largest of any point this year, even with stocks at all time highs.</p> <h2>Final Thoughts After Three Years:</h2> <p>Hard to believe I started tracking these cryptos three years ago. With so much constantly happening almost hourly in the space, that’s like 100 years In crypto-time. </p> <p>The back end of 2020 turned out to be some of the most exciting months of the experiment so far, but sticking this out has not always been easy. About half the time (16 months to be precise, just counted) the portfolio has been in the -80s% range. Despite long periods of hopelessness, I would say it’s always been interesting – and has kept me engaged during both the bull and bear periods, as I hoped it would.</p> <p>Although these cryptos may not be the most talked about anymore and I try my best to be impartial, I have to admit I have a soft spot for the original Top Ten from 2018. Watching <strong>NEM</strong> attempt a comeback after being left for dead, <strong>IOTA</strong> failing (at least to this point) to deliver its tangled future, old timer <strong>Litecoin</strong> dropping out of the Top Ten…then catapulting back in, <strong>Stellar’s</strong> rise, fall, and rise…it’s been fun.</p> <p>Some interesting questions remain: will this 2018 Top Ten portfolio ever get back in the green? If so, is it going to be <strong>Bitcoin</strong> and <strong>Ethereum</strong> dragging the rest in tow, or will some of the alts pitch in to contribute? Which of these popular 2018 cryptos will truly be buried, which will resurface? Interesting days ahead. I invite you to stick around and enjoy the journey with me.</p> <h2>Thanks and the Future of the Experiments</h2> <p>Thanks for reading and for supporting the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments over the years! It’s been a blast interacting with everyone, especially beginners – feel free to reach out if you have any questions.</p> <p>As for the future of the experiments? Full steam ahead. </p> <ol> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-3-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2018</a>.</li> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2019</a>.</li> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2020</a>.</li> <li>And, just announced, yes, I repeated the experiment with the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2021/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2021</a>!</li> </ol> <p>All the best in your crypto adventures in 2021!</p> <h2>And the Answer is…</h2> <p><strong>C) $3,800</strong></p> <p>On March 12, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> prices plunged to a 2020 low of $3,850, according to <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-prices-in-2020-heres-what-happened">Coindesk</a>.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Joe-M-4"> /u/Joe-M-4 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/PhDljmQpMg7TnPYAUVX0AJRuj1olOL6e1tUhaYqRxMI.jpg" alt="I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (THREE YEAR REPORT)" title="I bought $1k of the Top 10 Cryptos on January 1st, 2018 (THREE YEAR REPORT)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/vndx66w0ipa61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=212832bbf8764c6de0c5c63c89f5f0d359bce57e">EXPERIMENT - Tracking 2019 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – THREE YEAR REPORT - Down -49%</a></p> <p><strong><em>The full blog post with all the tables is</em></strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-3-year-report/"><strong><em>here</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong></p> <p><strong>tl;dr</strong></p> <ul> <li><strong>MOON USE CASE</strong>: <em>30 Moons to the first person to name the artists and titles of the hidden songs that any self respecting New Year's Eve party would have on its playlist.</em></li> <li><strong>What's this all about?</strong> I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting monthly for nearly three years. Did the same in 2019 and 2020. This is the OG 2018 Top Ten Three Year Report. <strong><em>Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments</em></strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/about/"><strong><em>here</em></strong></a><strong><em>.</em></strong></li> <li><strong>December</strong> - <strong>BTC</strong> and <strong>LTC</strong> dominate. <strong>XRP</strong> losing almost 2/3rds of its value. For the second straight month, stocks hit ATH.</li> <li><strong>Overall since Jan. 2018</strong> - Not even close: <strong>BTC</strong> crushing the competition, crushing the S&P over the same time period<strong>. ETH</strong> becomes second 2018 Top Ten crypto to break even. 2018 portfolio is down -49% in three years.</li> <li><strong>2018+2019+2020 Combined Top Ten Portfolios are returning 87%.</strong> </li> </ul> <h2>Month Thirty-Six and Year Three Report – Down 49%</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/cpwdzavtjpa61.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd3715ffacf4240f3a8d086e99cc4575b570cfe9">2018 Top Ten Summary - Year Three of the Index Fund Experiment </a></p> <p>First things first: wishing everyone a very happy and healthy 2021!</p> <p>Okay, let’s dive in. After all the crypto build up in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">November</a>, December seemed to explode: massive developments seemed to be happening by the hour. On the positive side, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> dominated the field, reached a new all time high, and received a ton of attention, driving up the price +$10k per <strong>BTC</strong> in just one month. On the negative side, <a href="https://www.sec.gov/news/press-release/2020-338">news from the SEC</a> late in December caused XRP’s price to absolutely plummet.</p> <p>With this month’s update, we wrap up <strong>three years</strong> of tracking this group of cryptos! <strong>Bitcoin, XRP, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Cardano, Litecoin, IOTA, NEM, Dash,</strong> and <strong>Stellar</strong> – some famous, some forgotten, some fading, some resurging – regardless of how we might feel about these cryptos today, these were some of the most popular, most talked about, and most promising coins on <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 1st, 2018</a> (or at the very least the most valued by market cap).</p> <p>Three years later: <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has been joined by <strong>Ethereum</strong> as one of only two cryptos to have at least broken even (<strong>Bitcoin</strong> handily, <strong>ETH</strong> just barely). And after nearly three years of waiting, <strong>BTC</strong> is now easily beating the returns of the S&P 500 over the same time period (much more on that below). </p> <h2>Question of the month year:</h2> <h4>In March 2020, Bitcoin hit a low of approximately:</h4> <p>A) $2,500</p> <p>B) $3,200</p> <p>C) $3,800</p> <p>D) $5,100</p> <p><em>Scroll down for the answer.</em></p> <h2>December Rankings and Three Year Movement Report</h2> <p>Lots of movement in December, mostly down, as altcoins struggled to keep up with <strong>Bitcoin</strong>. The one upward exception, <strong>NEM</strong> continued to surprise by gaining one place, up from #19 to #18. As mentioned in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">last month’s update</a>, this is possibly related to the 1:1 <a href="https://nemplatform.com/symbol-migration/">XEM/Symbol Airdrop</a> that’s coming in February 2021.</p> <p>Any other movement was downward this month: after battling <strong>Tether</strong> for third place for much of the second half of the year, <strong>XRP</strong> dropped one spot to #4. <strong>Bitcoin Cash</strong> fell from #5 to #6, and after nearly clawing itself back into the Top Ten, <strong>Stellar</strong> came back to earth a bit in December, sliding from #11 to #15. </p> <p>The biggest drops were <strong>Dash</strong> (down six places to #31) and <strong>IOTA</strong> (down nine places to #37).</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/v2xmpnqflpa61.png?width=417&format=png&auto=webp&s=5e0f5b4310a9d146fa9b173168c4b57d87029e6b">60% Top Ten retention rate after three years</a></p> <p><strong>Top Ten dropouts since January 2018:</strong> After three years of the 2018 Top Ten experiment 40% of the cryptos that <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">started in the Top Ten</a> have dropped out. <strong>NEM, Dash, IOTA</strong>, and <strong>Stellar</strong> have been replaced by <strong>Binance Coin, Tether</strong>, <strong>LINK</strong>, and most recently, <strong>DOT</strong>. </p> <p>Or, using a glass half-full lens: <em>over the last three years, 60% of the 2018 Top Ten cryptocurrencies (</em><strong><em>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH, ADA, LTC</em></strong><em>) have managed to maintain their relative position in the market</em>. </p> <p>Interestingly, even with slightly different players, this is the same percentage (60%) of position holders as the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">2019 Top Ten Portfolio</a>. And the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">2020 Top Ten Experiment</a> group has performed only marginally better (70% remaining/30% dropout rate). </p> <p>Given the unpredictability and progress in the cryptocurrency space over the last three years, a 60% retention rate for the 2018 Top Ten is pretty remarkable.</p> <p><strong>Which held and which lost the most ground compared to its peers?</strong> Thirty six months in, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> has been the most steady crypto, never losing its frontrunner status, always locked in the #1 position. </p> <p><strong>IOTA</strong> has dropped the most in the last three years and its final 2020 ranking of #37 places it in danger of becoming the first 2018 Top Ten crypto to fall out of the <em>Top Forty</em>. As a reminder, <strong>IOTA</strong> was ranked #7 three years ago. </p> <h2>December Winners and Losers</h2> <p><strong><em>December Winners</em></strong> – <strong>Bitcoin,</strong> increasing a massive +51% in one month. Close behind, <strong>Litecoin</strong> quietly gained +44% despite limited buzz.</p> <p><strong><em>December Losers</em></strong> – An extremely tough month for <strong>XRP</strong> which lost nearly two-thirds of its value, finishing the month down -63%. <strong>XLM</strong> got knocked around as well, losing one-third of its value in December, finishing the month down -33%.</p> <h2>Three Year Tally of Monthly Winners and Losers</h2> <p>After three years, the table below will give you a good sense of the winners and losers over the first thirty six months of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/3ye0qxtulpa61.png?width=399&format=png&auto=webp&s=acfeeed38f797dfa390be34acf2c4ff1af9e5b5d">Three years of Ws and Ls</a></p> <p><strong>Bitcoin</strong> reigns supreme here as well, with the most monthly wins (10). <strong>Cardano</strong> has the second most victories, racking up 6 monthly wins in three years. <strong>NEM</strong> has lost 8 months, the most out of the 2018 Top Ten group. And <strong>Bitcoin</strong> is unique as the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t lost a month yet since January 2018 (although it has come close a couple of times).</p> <h2>Three Year Wrap Up – BTC returns crush S&P, BTC and ETH only cryptos in green, overall portfolio breaks -50%, and IOTA in last place.</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/g3xrlqqylpa61.png?width=1097&format=png&auto=webp&s=7e322b79d4c524a78f3b495dca612cfed3841d03">Mostly red, but signs of life</a></p> <p>Just <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35">last month</a>, it happened: for the first time in the nearly three years since the beginning of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, I was happy to report that the $100 invested into <strong>Bitcoin</strong> on January 1st, 2018 was returning more than if invested in the US stock market as measured by the S&P 500. </p> <p>Because December 2020 was another strong month for <strong>BTC</strong>, the gap has significantly increased: since January 2018, the S&P is up +41%. <strong>Bitcoin?</strong> +123%. </p> <p>Put another way: <em>three years later, $100 into</em> <strong><em>Bitcoin</em></strong> <em>on January 1st, 2018 is worth</em> <strong><em>$223</em></strong> <em>compared to</em> <strong><em>$141</em></strong> <em>had it been redirected to the S&P on</em> <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYCyCaK_5k"><em>New Year’s Day</em></a><em>, 2018.</em></p> <p>This has NOT been an easy or straightforward road for <strong>Bitcoin</strong>. At one point, <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/">a year into the Experiment</a>, <strong>BTC</strong> was down -74% compared to an S&P return of 1.2% at the time.</p> <p>At the three year point in the 2018 Experiment, <strong>ETH</strong> joins <strong>Bitcoin</strong> as the only other crypto in the green: <strong>Ethereum</strong> is now +2% since January 2018.</p> <p>A distant third, but apparently next in line to break even, is <strong>Litecoin</strong>, currently down -42%. </p> <p>The 2018 Top Ten portfolio as a whole? <em>Still down -49% since January 2018.</em></p> <p>Pop that Champaign, time for a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GwjfUFyY6M&ob=av3e">celebration</a>! </p> <p>Maybe not full scale ticker tape parade time just yet, but this marks the psychologically important “halfway back” point for the 2018 Top Ten Experiment and represents the highest overall return since <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-four/">April 2018</a>. Although not pretty, the direction is encouraging: check out the Monthly ROI table below for a bird’s eye view of the 2018 Top Ten ROI journey.</p> <p>At the bottom are a couple of cryptos that have lost at least 90% of their value in three years: <strong>Dash</strong> is down -90% and <strong>IOTA</strong> has lost -91% over the life of the experiment. The initial $100 invested in <strong>IOTA</strong> three years ago is worth $8.21 today.</p> <h2>Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/cb71mol3mpa61.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=d1165b4f7e01f9ea2ba66864a8cee89d9535d36b">Quite a ride - three years of market cap</a></p> <p>After gaining a massive $182B in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">November</a>, the total crypto market cap added another $193B in December. For the second month in a row this represents <em>a higher level than when the 2018 Experiment started three years ago</em>. Up +35% since January 2018, it is approaching the 41% return of the S&P over the same time period.</p> <h2>Bitcoin dominance:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/3b6pzz88mpa61.png?width=692&format=png&auto=webp&s=c021c76ebf9af18364f0c6b06492583df239c5be">Nearly 40% range in BitDom during the life of the Experiment</a></p> <p>A big, big leap for BitDom this month, ending 2020 at 70.4%. For context, this is just barely below the Experiment’s record level of 70.5% back in <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-twenty/">September 2019</a>. It will be interesting to see how much higher <strong>BTC</strong> dominance can go. Since the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">beginning of the experiment</a>, the range of <strong>Bitcoin</strong> dominance has been quite wide: from the current 70% high to a low of 33% in the first month of the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">2018 Experiment</a>.</p> <h2>Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:</h2> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/v2cdbvqfmpa61.png?width=337&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1c4c1c3c7b8a55302bbea94466e70b48ddfd045">Half way back?</a></p> <p>The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio gained about $78 bucks in December and finally arrived at the halfway back point. If, after three years, I cashed out of all the cryptos today, the $1000 initial investment would return about $513, down -49% from <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 2018</a>.</p> <p>For some perspective, here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, over the last three years:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/13jo9bcimpa61.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=988a450643bb47cd432e6abc48d41640f11c7499">Blood blood blood</a></p> <p>Although the three year return of the 2018 Top Ten are abysmal, there are reasons I <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VcjzHMhBtf0">don’t stop believing</a> we could eventually see green: the portfolio is trending in a positive direction, the -49% is a level that hasn’t been seen since <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-four/">April 2018</a>, and the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio is a far cry from the absolute bottom (back in January 2019 when it was down <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/">-88%</a>). Whether or not <strong>BTC</strong> is going to single handedly have to drag the entire portfolio up without any real help from the alts remains to be seen…</p> <p>So the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio is down -49%. After repeating the Top Ten Experiment in <strong><em>2019</em></strong> and <strong><em>2020</em></strong> (<a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2021/">and just recently, again for 2021!</a>), how are the other Experiments holding up? Let’s take a look:</p> <ul> <li><a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">2019 Top Ten Experiment</a>: up +169% (total value $2,693)</li> <li><a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">2020 Top Ten Experiment</a>: up +139% (total value $2,395)</li> </ul> <p>So overall? Taking the three portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom <em>bottom</em> line: </p> <p><strong>After a $3000 investment in the 2018, 2019, and 2020 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies, my combined portfolios are worth $5,601</strong> ($513+ $2,693 +$2,395).</p> <p><strong>That’s up about +87%</strong> on the three combined portfolios, compared to +72% <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35">last month</a>. </p> <p>Here’s a table to help visualize:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/fsqk3zrmmpa61.png?width=448&format=png&auto=webp&s=827cbf180d5b3788800c867340fd144aee37d68b">The combined Top Ten portfolios: ending the year strong</a></p> <p><strong><em>That’s an +87% gain by investing $1k on whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st for three straight years</em></strong>. </p> <p>But surely I would have done even better if I went all in on one crypto, right? </p> <p>Let’s take a look. Only five cryptos have begun each of the last three years in the Top Ten: <strong>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH,</strong> and <strong>LTC</strong>. Which one wins?</p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/1nu95x3smpa61.png?width=797&format=png&auto=webp&s=14c1c38ed7d030f7d0b004f72defab5a2fdaaf1e">Three year club comparison</a></p> <p><strong>BTC</strong> FTW. Going all in on <strong>Bitcoin</strong> with $3,000 USD (dropped in $1k chunks every New Year’s Day since 2018) would have yielded +358%, turning that $3k into over $13,730. <strong>ETH</strong>, the best performing of the Three Year Club <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-35/">last month</a>, comes in second place at the end of 2020 (+310%). </p> <p><strong>XRP</strong>, while still up in 2020, would have been the worst three year all-in bet, at -31%. And at this point in the Experiments, the +87% gains of the Top Ten Index Fund approach is outperforming a hypothetical all-in investment in both <strong>XRP</strong> and <strong>BCH</strong> by a healthy margin.</p> <h2>Comparison to S&P 500:</h2> <p>I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options. The S&P 500 Index continued upward reaching yet another new all time high in December. It ended 2020 up +41% since January 2018. </p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/k11m37mympa61.png?width=574&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ff5de3288c2b651628114ac845ca2333ab161b4">S&P - up 41% in three years</a></p> <p>The initial $1k investment into crypto on <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">January 1st, 2018</a> would have been worth about $1410 had it been redirected to the S&P.</p> <p>But what if I took the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments? Here are the numbers:</p> <ul> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1410 today</li> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1500 today</li> <li>$1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1160 today</li> </ul> <p>Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom <em>bottom</em> line for a similar approach with the S&P: </p> <p><strong>After three $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, and 2020, my portfolio would be worth $4,070.</strong></p> <p>That is up <strong>+36%</strong> <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/">since January 2018</a> compared to a <strong>+87%</strong> gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. </p> <p>You can compare against five individual coins (<strong>BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH,</strong> and <strong>LTC)</strong> by using the table above if you want. The key takeaway? The S&P 500 is currently outperforming <strong>XRP</strong> and is returning about 5% more than <strong>Bitcoin Cash.</strong> The ROI is much better with <strong>BTC, ETH, LTC</strong> and the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio approach.</p> <p>Here’s a table summarizing the three year ROI comparison between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/wij8ry04npa61.png?width=811&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b46509921c2626769a94dafd3e5940c29138559">Crypto - widening the gap</a></p> <p>That’s seven monthly victories for the S&P vs. five monthly victories for crypto in 2020. But the momentum is clearly on crypto’s side and the 51% gap is the largest of any point this year, even with stocks at all time highs.</p> <h2>Final Thoughts After Three Years:</h2> <p>Hard to believe I started tracking these cryptos three years ago. With so much constantly happening almost hourly in the space, that’s like 100 years In crypto-time. </p> <p>The back end of 2020 turned out to be some of the most exciting months of the experiment so far, but sticking this out has not always been easy. About half the time (16 months to be precise, just counted) the portfolio has been in the -80s% range. Despite long periods of hopelessness, I would say it’s always been interesting – and has kept me engaged during both the bull and bear periods, as I hoped it would.</p> <p>Although these cryptos may not be the most talked about anymore and I try my best to be impartial, I have to admit I have a soft spot for the original Top Ten from 2018. Watching <strong>NEM</strong> attempt a comeback after being left for dead, <strong>IOTA</strong> failing (at least to this point) to deliver its tangled future, old timer <strong>Litecoin</strong> dropping out of the Top Ten…then catapulting back in, <strong>Stellar’s</strong> rise, fall, and rise…it’s been fun.</p> <p>Some interesting questions remain: will this 2018 Top Ten portfolio ever get back in the green? If so, is it going to be <strong>Bitcoin</strong> and <strong>Ethereum</strong> dragging the rest in tow, or will some of the alts pitch in to contribute? Which of these popular 2018 cryptos will truly be buried, which will resurface? Interesting days ahead. I invite you to stick around and enjoy the journey with me.</p> <h2>Thanks and the Future of the Experiments</h2> <p>Thanks for reading and for supporting the Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiments over the years! It’s been a blast interacting with everyone, especially beginners – feel free to reach out if you have any questions.</p> <p>As for the future of the experiments? Full steam ahead. </p> <ol> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-3-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2018</a>.</li> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-2-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2019</a>.</li> <li>I’ll continue to hold and report monthly on the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-1-year-report/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2020</a>.</li> <li>And, just announced, yes, I repeated the experiment with the <a href="https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2021/">Top Ten Cryptos of 2021</a>!</li> </ol> <p>All the best in your crypto adventures in 2021!</p> <h2>And the Answer is…</h2> <p><strong>C) $3,800</strong></p> <p>On March 12, <strong>Bitcoin</strong> prices plunged to a 2020 low of $3,850, according to <a href="https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-prices-in-2020-heres-what-happened">Coindesk</a>.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Joe-M-4"> /u/Joe-M-4 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/kv3buj/i_bought_1k_of_the_top_10_cryptos_on_january_1st/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>Kind Regards R