04-23-2021, 05:06 AM
I made an exit strategy calculator based on the normal distribution and it's free fo
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>TLDR: You can use the link to download a template excel file that allows you to input profit taking levels based on your risk and predicted bitcoin, ethereum etc price that you give with a 95% confidence interval. </p> <p>Link:<br/> Google Docs: <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ldQFAnK1VQODfIZUI_mfm3368V2GGAcaxsii_QtEpcs/edit?usp=sharing">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ldQFAnK1VQODfIZUI_mfm3368V2GGAcaxsii_QtEpcs/edit?usp=sharing</a><br/> Mediafire:<br/> <a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/mnlnv8ys8x07rsi/Crypto_Normal_Distribution_Model.xlsx/file">https://www.mediafire.com/file/mnlnv8ys8x07rsi/Crypto_Normal_Distribution_Model.xlsx/file</a> </p> <p>Many of us here don't yet have a solid exit strategy so I have devised a model based on the normal distribution. Even between institutions, no one can decide the predicted bitcoin price for the end of this bull cycle, so giving users a 95% confidence interval for where they believe bitcoin will peak is crucial. </p> <p>Users input their predicted bitcoin price (or equivalent for each asset) and their expected 95% confidence interval. You can then choose at which risk levels you want to take profits, e.g. I want to sell 10% when the probability of being at peak price is 50%, another 10% at probability of peak price being 60%, etc. </p> <p>Using probability, the total expected sales of the asset based on the prices you sell at and how much, allow us to calculate both a cash profit/loss (not including leftover crypto which hasn't been sold). To add further value, users can predict what % the market will crash to (set to 40% as default). From this, a total P/L can then be calculated, including both realised value (from crypto sold) and crypto left over after the crash. </p> <p>Hope this is helpful to some of those looking for an exit strategy based on probability and risk, rather than psychological many 'crypto influencers' suggest. </p> <p>Feel free to leave comments for potential improvement and other tools you may like to see.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Robindinho"> /u/Robindinho </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mw0v8x/i_made_an_exit_strategy_calculator_based_on_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mw0v8x/i_made_an_exit_strategy_calculator_based_on_the/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>TLDR: You can use the link to download a template excel file that allows you to input profit taking levels based on your risk and predicted bitcoin, ethereum etc price that you give with a 95% confidence interval. </p> <p>Link:<br/> Google Docs: <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ldQFAnK1VQODfIZUI_mfm3368V2GGAcaxsii_QtEpcs/edit?usp=sharing">https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ldQFAnK1VQODfIZUI_mfm3368V2GGAcaxsii_QtEpcs/edit?usp=sharing</a><br/> Mediafire:<br/> <a href="https://www.mediafire.com/file/mnlnv8ys8x07rsi/Crypto_Normal_Distribution_Model.xlsx/file">https://www.mediafire.com/file/mnlnv8ys8x07rsi/Crypto_Normal_Distribution_Model.xlsx/file</a> </p> <p>Many of us here don't yet have a solid exit strategy so I have devised a model based on the normal distribution. Even between institutions, no one can decide the predicted bitcoin price for the end of this bull cycle, so giving users a 95% confidence interval for where they believe bitcoin will peak is crucial. </p> <p>Users input their predicted bitcoin price (or equivalent for each asset) and their expected 95% confidence interval. You can then choose at which risk levels you want to take profits, e.g. I want to sell 10% when the probability of being at peak price is 50%, another 10% at probability of peak price being 60%, etc. </p> <p>Using probability, the total expected sales of the asset based on the prices you sell at and how much, allow us to calculate both a cash profit/loss (not including leftover crypto which hasn't been sold). To add further value, users can predict what % the market will crash to (set to 40% as default). From this, a total P/L can then be calculated, including both realised value (from crypto sold) and crypto left over after the crash. </p> <p>Hope this is helpful to some of those looking for an exit strategy based on probability and risk, rather than psychological many 'crypto influencers' suggest. </p> <p>Feel free to leave comments for potential improvement and other tools you may like to see.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Robindinho"> /u/Robindinho </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mw0v8x/i_made_an_exit_strategy_calculator_based_on_the/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/mw0v8x/i_made_an_exit_strategy_calculator_based_on_the/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R