07-29-2021, 04:15 AM
Bear Theory on AMD valuation
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>EDIT - added more sources</p> <p>Here's my bear theory on AMD:</p> <p>AMD doesn't have a transistor advantage.</p> <p>Foundries have different specifications for how their chip geometry is measured. Ultimately performance benchmarks are all that matters.</p> <p>AMD may be able to translate hype into sales, but that's all it is. Intel is still a superior chip because their internal geometry is impeccable, and it is seen in their performance versus AMD chips.</p> <p><a href="https://www.pcgamer.com/chipmaking-process-node-naming-lmc-paper/">https://www.pcgamer.com/chipmaking-process-node-naming-lmc-paper/</a></p> <p>I also can't emphasize enough that the Federal Government will probably terminate its use of anything built by TSMC which is AMD's primary supply.</p> <p>Therefore AMD is at <strong>SIGNIFICANT RISK</strong> to geopolitics.</p> <p>They look good now but those sales could be demolished in a few months.</p> <p>Here is a more technical paper on transistor gate lengths being the wrong measurement.<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9063714">https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9063714</a></p> <p>Here's an article on risks of TSMC contracts which I've seen no change in this sentiment.<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-defense-department-looks-bolster-domestic-chip-manufacture-with-new-program-2020-12-18/">https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-defense-department-looks-bolster-domestic-chip-manufacture-with-new-program-2020-12-18/</a></p> <p>EDIT - additional resources:</p> <p>US DOD already has labeled Qualcomm as its RAMP phase 1 <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/dod-seeks-2-3b-to-bolster-chip-making/">https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/dod-seeks-2-3b-to-bolster-chip-making/</a></p> <p>and guess who already cut-off AMD from that access:</p> <p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/">https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/DarthTrader357"> /u/DarthTrader357 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/oti40u/bear_theory_on_amd_valuation/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/oti40u/bear_theory_on_amd_valuation/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>EDIT - added more sources</p> <p>Here's my bear theory on AMD:</p> <p>AMD doesn't have a transistor advantage.</p> <p>Foundries have different specifications for how their chip geometry is measured. Ultimately performance benchmarks are all that matters.</p> <p>AMD may be able to translate hype into sales, but that's all it is. Intel is still a superior chip because their internal geometry is impeccable, and it is seen in their performance versus AMD chips.</p> <p><a href="https://www.pcgamer.com/chipmaking-process-node-naming-lmc-paper/">https://www.pcgamer.com/chipmaking-process-node-naming-lmc-paper/</a></p> <p>I also can't emphasize enough that the Federal Government will probably terminate its use of anything built by TSMC which is AMD's primary supply.</p> <p>Therefore AMD is at <strong>SIGNIFICANT RISK</strong> to geopolitics.</p> <p>They look good now but those sales could be demolished in a few months.</p> <p>Here is a more technical paper on transistor gate lengths being the wrong measurement.<a href="https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9063714">https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/9063714</a></p> <p>Here's an article on risks of TSMC contracts which I've seen no change in this sentiment.<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-defense-department-looks-bolster-domestic-chip-manufacture-with-new-program-2020-12-18/">https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-defense-department-looks-bolster-domestic-chip-manufacture-with-new-program-2020-12-18/</a></p> <p>EDIT - additional resources:</p> <p>US DOD already has labeled Qualcomm as its RAMP phase 1 <a href="https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/dod-seeks-2-3b-to-bolster-chip-making/">https://breakingdefense.com/2021/06/dod-seeks-2-3b-to-bolster-chip-making/</a></p> <p>and guess who already cut-off AMD from that access:</p> <p><a href="https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/">https://www.reuters.com/technology/intel-build-qualcomm-chips-aims-catch-foundry-rivals-by-2025-2021-07-26/</a></p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/DarthTrader357"> /u/DarthTrader357 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/oti40u/bear_theory_on_amd_valuation/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/oti40u/bear_theory_on_amd_valuation/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R