10-17-2021, 09:07 PM
How to determine what the market thinks the price of e.g. the $SPY will be in the fu
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>For inflation, I understand that TIPS are equivalent to market-based predictors of what level inflation will be (graphed: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE</a>).</p> <p>Is there the equivalent for the future price of a stock or index? For example, if I wanted to answer the question "what does the market think the % chance is there that $SPY hits $475 in the next year" based on all the existing calls/puts... is that possible to determine?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ablewasibobisawelba"> /u/ablewasibobisawelba </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qa60on/how_to_determine_what_the_market_thinks_the_price/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qa60on/how_to_determine_what_the_market_thinks_the_price/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>For inflation, I understand that TIPS are equivalent to market-based predictors of what level inflation will be (graphed: <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE">https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE</a>).</p> <p>Is there the equivalent for the future price of a stock or index? For example, if I wanted to answer the question "what does the market think the % chance is there that $SPY hits $475 in the next year" based on all the existing calls/puts... is that possible to determine?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/ablewasibobisawelba"> /u/ablewasibobisawelba </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qa60on/how_to_determine_what_the_market_thinks_the_price/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/qa60on/how_to_determine_what_the_market_thinks_the_price/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R