01-08-2022, 08:27 AM
Facts: Retail is not interested in BTC. Retail is chasing alt plays, NFTs and other
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>First of all, its wrong to say retail is not in crypto anymore - Anecdotal, I was just in an NFT free mint that got sold out in literally 10 mins. Its a little obscure project which might very well go to zero in about 2 weeks, but even this one's discord server has over 10k users in just about 3 days. </p> <p>And there are hundreds if not more such NFTs projects all over cryptoverse. This is all retail for you. </p> <p>Now, lets not turn this into NFT hate thread, I like to gamble on NFTs, some gamble on sports, some gamble on coins..so let that be.. its not the main topic of this post. </p> <p>My point is that the retail are still in crypto as a whole. Some of them surely left with the crash, but many are around. To mint these NFTs you definitely need some crypto. Activity across many networks are still growing. OpenSea still is guzzling gas and is the top most used dapp. </p> <p>The retail are just not interested in BTC at all. Many users are playing play to earn games or gambling NFTs. They are just not interested in buying Bitcoin</p> <p><strong>Key stats:</strong></p> <p>BTC activity is still at 2018 bear market levels. It hasnt grown at all. <a href="https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions">https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions</a></p> <p>This one is even more worrying for BTC - people have literally stopped using BTC since July: <a href="https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight">https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight</a></p> <p>There is no network effect growth whatsoever. Without network effect, the price doesnt grow much. In the absence of clear valuation models like discounted cash flow, network growth and volume transacted has been used to arrive at valuations for networks/blockchains, and here you have BTC's network growth falling off a cliff. </p> <p>With other networks, people are not just investing and forgetting about it, but actively doing things - whether its lending or swapping tokens or minting some dumb jpeg. This brings people to explore the network, as seen by the rise in number of participants in almost every chain that has managed to get limelight. All of these chains have growing txn/day stats. </p> <p>With Bitcoin, all one can do is invest and forget. In contrast to the above networks, the txn/day is still at 2018 levels. </p> <p>A BTC argument is that LN adoption is increasing, but there is no real evidence for that. You cannot know how many LN transactions happen a day, and just volume increase to a few hundred million cannot substantiate tremendous growth. </p> <p>Sound money, censorship resistance etc are all good narratives but if the network usage is stagnating like above, it is really a cause to worry.</p> <p>Edit: I'll address some of the comments/replies:</p> <p>1- BTC has hit ATH in this period: </p> <p>-> The first ATH was actually made in April 2021, which according to the links above was still high activity period. The second ATH was fuelled mostly by speculation about ETF approval, and was front run the whole time. The second ATH has little to do with fundamentals, it was a market event. Is that sustainable? We are nearing a 40% correction since that. </p> <p>2 - Banks and institutions are stacking BTC. "Billions have been poured into it by banks and other financial institutions". </p> <p>-> LOL. This has to be the biggest fallacy among all the ones here. Not even one bank is holding BTC on its balance sheet, most of the banks are listed and if they held BTC we would find out. None. Institutions - its just MicroStrategy buying BTC, Tesla made one buy and thats about it. Banks and institutions however are offering it to their customers - this is a big difference b/w saying banks are stacking BTC. If customer of a bank wants exposure to BTC, banks will more than happy to facilitate it. Banks also facilitated their clients to hold Enron shares, or Pets.com. Involvement of banks says nothing about the future growth of the asset. Banks will happily let you buy the next Theranos if they can make few % of that transaction. </p> <p>3- "BIG MONEY" is stacking bitcoin..." </p> <p>-> Again, price action says a totally different tale. Lower low after lower high, on repeat, down 40% and counting. </p> <p>4- No. of transactions doesnt matter. </p> <p>-> This is an interesting take, because even the whitepaper says peer to peer currency but is now being built up as "transactions dont matter". But lets play to this tune, if transactions dont matter, whats the reason for BTC number to go up? Just a belief that more and more people will be buying it, and you can sell it to them at a higher price? Do you realize how comical this scheme sounds? Transactions definitely matter, </p> <p>5- These stats dont matter, no. of bitcoin wallets matter. </p> <p>-> The growth in bitcoin wallets has been equally poor. Active addresses havent really grown since 2017. <a href="https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.ActiveCount">https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.ActiveCount</a> So you have active wallets more or less the same as 2017 levels, but price 2x that of 2017's peak. </p> <p>6- "Corporations are buying Bitcoin, not shit coins". </p> <p>-> Corporations like nike and adidas bought ape jpegs too. By your own logic, ape jpegs are akin digital gold now, just because corporations are buying them? Nike bought an entire NFT shoe platform, that sells shoes on OpenSea that you can dress your avatars up with.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Set1Less"> /u/Set1Less </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ry8rsx/facts_retail_is_not_interested_in_btc_retail_is/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ry8rsx/facts_retail_is_not_interested_in_btc_retail_is/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>First of all, its wrong to say retail is not in crypto anymore - Anecdotal, I was just in an NFT free mint that got sold out in literally 10 mins. Its a little obscure project which might very well go to zero in about 2 weeks, but even this one's discord server has over 10k users in just about 3 days. </p> <p>And there are hundreds if not more such NFTs projects all over cryptoverse. This is all retail for you. </p> <p>Now, lets not turn this into NFT hate thread, I like to gamble on NFTs, some gamble on sports, some gamble on coins..so let that be.. its not the main topic of this post. </p> <p>My point is that the retail are still in crypto as a whole. Some of them surely left with the crash, but many are around. To mint these NFTs you definitely need some crypto. Activity across many networks are still growing. OpenSea still is guzzling gas and is the top most used dapp. </p> <p>The retail are just not interested in BTC at all. Many users are playing play to earn games or gambling NFTs. They are just not interested in buying Bitcoin</p> <p><strong>Key stats:</strong></p> <p>BTC activity is still at 2018 bear market levels. It hasnt grown at all. <a href="https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions">https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions</a></p> <p>This one is even more worrying for BTC - people have literally stopped using BTC since July: <a href="https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight">https://jochen-hoenicke.de/queue/#BTC,1y,weight</a></p> <p>There is no network effect growth whatsoever. Without network effect, the price doesnt grow much. In the absence of clear valuation models like discounted cash flow, network growth and volume transacted has been used to arrive at valuations for networks/blockchains, and here you have BTC's network growth falling off a cliff. </p> <p>With other networks, people are not just investing and forgetting about it, but actively doing things - whether its lending or swapping tokens or minting some dumb jpeg. This brings people to explore the network, as seen by the rise in number of participants in almost every chain that has managed to get limelight. All of these chains have growing txn/day stats. </p> <p>With Bitcoin, all one can do is invest and forget. In contrast to the above networks, the txn/day is still at 2018 levels. </p> <p>A BTC argument is that LN adoption is increasing, but there is no real evidence for that. You cannot know how many LN transactions happen a day, and just volume increase to a few hundred million cannot substantiate tremendous growth. </p> <p>Sound money, censorship resistance etc are all good narratives but if the network usage is stagnating like above, it is really a cause to worry.</p> <p>Edit: I'll address some of the comments/replies:</p> <p>1- BTC has hit ATH in this period: </p> <p>-> The first ATH was actually made in April 2021, which according to the links above was still high activity period. The second ATH was fuelled mostly by speculation about ETF approval, and was front run the whole time. The second ATH has little to do with fundamentals, it was a market event. Is that sustainable? We are nearing a 40% correction since that. </p> <p>2 - Banks and institutions are stacking BTC. "Billions have been poured into it by banks and other financial institutions". </p> <p>-> LOL. This has to be the biggest fallacy among all the ones here. Not even one bank is holding BTC on its balance sheet, most of the banks are listed and if they held BTC we would find out. None. Institutions - its just MicroStrategy buying BTC, Tesla made one buy and thats about it. Banks and institutions however are offering it to their customers - this is a big difference b/w saying banks are stacking BTC. If customer of a bank wants exposure to BTC, banks will more than happy to facilitate it. Banks also facilitated their clients to hold Enron shares, or Pets.com. Involvement of banks says nothing about the future growth of the asset. Banks will happily let you buy the next Theranos if they can make few % of that transaction. </p> <p>3- "BIG MONEY" is stacking bitcoin..." </p> <p>-> Again, price action says a totally different tale. Lower low after lower high, on repeat, down 40% and counting. </p> <p>4- No. of transactions doesnt matter. </p> <p>-> This is an interesting take, because even the whitepaper says peer to peer currency but is now being built up as "transactions dont matter". But lets play to this tune, if transactions dont matter, whats the reason for BTC number to go up? Just a belief that more and more people will be buying it, and you can sell it to them at a higher price? Do you realize how comical this scheme sounds? Transactions definitely matter, </p> <p>5- These stats dont matter, no. of bitcoin wallets matter. </p> <p>-> The growth in bitcoin wallets has been equally poor. Active addresses havent really grown since 2017. <a href="https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.ActiveCount">https://studio.glassnode.com/metrics?a=BTC&category=Addresses&m=addresses.ActiveCount</a> So you have active wallets more or less the same as 2017 levels, but price 2x that of 2017's peak. </p> <p>6- "Corporations are buying Bitcoin, not shit coins". </p> <p>-> Corporations like nike and adidas bought ape jpegs too. By your own logic, ape jpegs are akin digital gold now, just because corporations are buying them? Nike bought an entire NFT shoe platform, that sells shoes on OpenSea that you can dress your avatars up with.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Set1Less"> /u/Set1Less </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ry8rsx/facts_retail_is_not_interested_in_btc_retail_is/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ry8rsx/facts_retail_is_not_interested_in_btc_retail_is/">[comments]</a></span>Kind Regards R