08-12-2022, 10:38 PM
I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/"> <img src="https://external-preview.redd.it/LYsk4diVwejKjOArxTUiYcJFo2EGfb0IS_jH92xjn5I.jpg?width=320&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8ca3a0b4a723a1daa8108243a416ab18304725f7" alt="I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years" title="I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Reading through this subreddit I often stumble on the term 'red Monday' and 'dildo Sunday'... It seems that there is a prevelant opinion that during weekdays the crypto market is pumping while dumping on weekends. The current mantra is buy when it's low and sell before it dumps, right?</p> <p><strong>Strategy:</strong></p> <p>Therefore I simulated the following trading strategy: Buying 100$ into bitcoin on Mondays and selling it on Fridays from 2020-08-24 onwards over two years.</p> <p><strong>Analysis:</strong></p> <p>I created a txt file with 100$ entry and the outcome for each week, then loaded it into a free Analyzing Tool from <a href="https://www.quantintegral.com/">Quant Integral</a>. This is the outcome over the last two years:</p> <ul> <li>Absolute Profits after 102 trades: 70$</li> <li>Win Rate after 102 trades: 53%</li> <li>Expected Profit per Trade: 0.7%</li> </ul> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/xjmh283hgch91.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=23f1b80e007b4e0f9eb24b2d2fc88148ec0d416d">https://preview.redd.it/xjmh283hgch91.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=23f1b80e007b4e0f9eb24b2d2fc88148ec0d416d</a></p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong></p> <p>On the first glance 70$ Profit seems to be good. If you look at the charts how the expected Profits changes over time, then the strategy was actually viable during a period between week 10 and week 30. But if you look further it began to decline - the strategy stopped working (roughly after 2021-03-08). The win rate nears 50% and the expected profits for a trade went to nearly 0 after 100 trades - those metrics are similar to a coin-flip game. This means that this strategy is not viable anymore and not viable for long term trading.</p> <p><strong>Remarks:</strong></p> <p>All data and the analysis can be verified on <a href="https://quantintegral.com">quantintegral.com</a> where you can analyze any strategies.</p> <p><strong>Extra:</strong></p> <p>If there is interest I'll analyze the strategy if one would buy btc and sell it on the next day over the last two years</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Abranx"> /u/Abranx </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/"> <img src="https://external-preview.redd.it/LYsk4diVwejKjOArxTUiYcJFo2EGfb0IS_jH92xjn5I.jpg?width=320&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=8ca3a0b4a723a1daa8108243a416ab18304725f7" alt="I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years" title="I analyzed buying bitcoin on Mondays and selling on Fridays over the last two years" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Reading through this subreddit I often stumble on the term 'red Monday' and 'dildo Sunday'... It seems that there is a prevelant opinion that during weekdays the crypto market is pumping while dumping on weekends. The current mantra is buy when it's low and sell before it dumps, right?</p> <p><strong>Strategy:</strong></p> <p>Therefore I simulated the following trading strategy: Buying 100$ into bitcoin on Mondays and selling it on Fridays from 2020-08-24 onwards over two years.</p> <p><strong>Analysis:</strong></p> <p>I created a txt file with 100$ entry and the outcome for each week, then loaded it into a free Analyzing Tool from <a href="https://www.quantintegral.com/">Quant Integral</a>. This is the outcome over the last two years:</p> <ul> <li>Absolute Profits after 102 trades: 70$</li> <li>Win Rate after 102 trades: 53%</li> <li>Expected Profit per Trade: 0.7%</li> </ul> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/xjmh283hgch91.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=23f1b80e007b4e0f9eb24b2d2fc88148ec0d416d">https://preview.redd.it/xjmh283hgch91.png?width=625&format=png&auto=webp&s=23f1b80e007b4e0f9eb24b2d2fc88148ec0d416d</a></p> <p><strong>Conclusion:</strong></p> <p>On the first glance 70$ Profit seems to be good. If you look at the charts how the expected Profits changes over time, then the strategy was actually viable during a period between week 10 and week 30. But if you look further it began to decline - the strategy stopped working (roughly after 2021-03-08). The win rate nears 50% and the expected profits for a trade went to nearly 0 after 100 trades - those metrics are similar to a coin-flip game. This means that this strategy is not viable anymore and not viable for long term trading.</p> <p><strong>Remarks:</strong></p> <p>All data and the analysis can be verified on <a href="https://quantintegral.com">quantintegral.com</a> where you can analyze any strategies.</p> <p><strong>Extra:</strong></p> <p>If there is interest I'll analyze the strategy if one would buy btc and sell it on the next day over the last two years</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Abranx"> /u/Abranx </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/wmvlk5/i_analyzed_buying_bitcoin_on_mondays_and_selling/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>