09-18-2022, 08:19 AM
Crypto market does not follow a smooth trajectory rather it comes in bursts, similar
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/s2UyX7nVi7gwbn4-2bJLDYCH0UMYZsMTRRR1CsjssVM.jpg" alt="Crypto market does not follow a smooth trajectory rather it comes in bursts, similar to phase transitions." title="Crypto market does not follow a smooth trajectory rather it comes in bursts, similar to phase transitions." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>If you take a look at the historical price of bitcoin you can see that the spikes ( talking about to the moon type of moves) come in bursts and is often spontaneous. </p> <p>Importantly: this is preceded by a few years of just the price bouncing around. </p> <p>This reminds me of high school chemistry where they demonstrate phase changes. You keep adding drops after drops of a solution ( like a weak acid/base) and nothing changes and then like magic that last drop the entire tube changes pH, color or freezes ( depending on the experiment ) </p> <p>it's almost unpredictable when that can happen, you can only say it will happen if you do X but very difficult to predict precisely when and when it does happen impossible to catch. </p> <p>Here is a log scale of the bitcoin price. </p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/p26pzplj6go91.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=5af7dd028504db0df9f0ae2a79ec5c4636ce558c">https://preview.redd.it/p26pzplj6go91.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=5af7dd028504db0df9f0ae2a79ec5c4636ce558c</a></p> <p>From 2013 to 2016 it was bouncing around between 200 to 1200 then all of sudden it shoots up to 20K then spends the 4 years from 2016 to 2020 bouncing around between 4K and 12K. After that as we all know it shot up to 64K in a matter of a few months. </p> <p>Now its back down and this is where we are at. No one can tell you what will happen, but if it still acts like a phase transition this is going to bounce around within a certain range for 3-4 yrs again and </p> <p>just like that it will spontaneous transition. </p> <p>tldr: don't try to time the market. it works like a phase transition, a few years of small range bouncing around, then as if magic it shoots up really fast, transitioning from one phase to another, impossible to predict and just as hard to catch.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/pristine_air"> /u/pristine_air </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/s2UyX7nVi7gwbn4-2bJLDYCH0UMYZsMTRRR1CsjssVM.jpg" alt="Crypto market does not follow a smooth trajectory rather it comes in bursts, similar to phase transitions." title="Crypto market does not follow a smooth trajectory rather it comes in bursts, similar to phase transitions." /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>If you take a look at the historical price of bitcoin you can see that the spikes ( talking about to the moon type of moves) come in bursts and is often spontaneous. </p> <p>Importantly: this is preceded by a few years of just the price bouncing around. </p> <p>This reminds me of high school chemistry where they demonstrate phase changes. You keep adding drops after drops of a solution ( like a weak acid/base) and nothing changes and then like magic that last drop the entire tube changes pH, color or freezes ( depending on the experiment ) </p> <p>it's almost unpredictable when that can happen, you can only say it will happen if you do X but very difficult to predict precisely when and when it does happen impossible to catch. </p> <p>Here is a log scale of the bitcoin price. </p> <p>​</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/p26pzplj6go91.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=5af7dd028504db0df9f0ae2a79ec5c4636ce558c">https://preview.redd.it/p26pzplj6go91.png?width=947&format=png&auto=webp&s=5af7dd028504db0df9f0ae2a79ec5c4636ce558c</a></p> <p>From 2013 to 2016 it was bouncing around between 200 to 1200 then all of sudden it shoots up to 20K then spends the 4 years from 2016 to 2020 bouncing around between 4K and 12K. After that as we all know it shot up to 64K in a matter of a few months. </p> <p>Now its back down and this is where we are at. No one can tell you what will happen, but if it still acts like a phase transition this is going to bounce around within a certain range for 3-4 yrs again and </p> <p>just like that it will spontaneous transition. </p> <p>tldr: don't try to time the market. it works like a phase transition, a few years of small range bouncing around, then as if magic it shoots up really fast, transitioning from one phase to another, impossible to predict and just as hard to catch.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/pristine_air"> /u/pristine_air </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xgrjki/crypto_market_does_not_follow_a_smooth_trajectory/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>