10-07-2022, 12:09 AM
Signs of a eventual bull run (it might be closer than you think)
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/S67DrCZiYaPqiv14o7O-qEZ12Q2Fm5Raq7PjS36iLnE.jpg" alt="Signs of a eventual bull run (it might be closer than you think)" title="Signs of a eventual bull run (it might be closer than you think)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>We know the market enjoys pricing in before major events (as it tends to happens before a FED meeting).</p> <p>FED's president said if they raise interest rates to <strong>1%</strong> it can reduce developed countries GDP by 0,5% and under developed countries by 0.8%. USA had a increase on interest rates from 0% to 3,25% in 8 months.</p> <p><strong>Why this is important?</strong></p> <p>Because it can give us signs that we are approaching a real market bottom and we might see a recovery in 2023.</p> <p>John Williams (president and chief executive officers at FED) said he wants to keep inflation rate at <strong>2%</strong> in upcomming years, down from the expected 3% 2023.</p> <p>To make it a reality, they need to keep increasing interest rates until those numbers are met. and knowing this, the market tend to price it in.</p> <p>John also said that unemployment rate will increase from current <strong>3,7%</strong> to <strong>4,5%</strong> by the end of 2023.</p> <p><strong>FIRST</strong> sign that is a strong indicator of market bottom is <strong>wage inflation</strong>, what does it mean?</p> <p>After the pandemy we had a lot of job offers and lets say you worked at company A for 1k wage but company B is paying 2k, you would swap ofc. This is a good thing right? Yes and no. Let's understand it.</p> <p>If wage inflation is, let's say, 10% and general inflation is 7%, it will reduce the company's profit margim because if they have to pay more in order to remain competitive, they will also have to increase products price (but they also have a limit because if they incease too much, clients won't be able to pay for it) to make profit and customers will have to pay more and it's a god damn snowball that nobody benefits.</p> <p>This can't happen, it needs to be balanced. That's where the <strong>bottom of the market</strong> is.</p> <p><strong>SECOND</strong> sign is <strong>FED-Pivot</strong> and what i means is when FED change their politcs and instead of increasing interest rates, they <strong>lower</strong> them, let's take a look.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/na5mg517r2s91.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=11343b1dc218d233bfa8ebe344ae0a9bbda9efbb">As you can see, when interest rates are too high, a fed-pivot happens and it hits a bottom \"right after\".</a></p> <p><strong>When will this pivot thing happens?</strong></p> <p>When job offers reach a balance 1:1 (one job offer for one person and not 2 job offers for one person), the wage inflation and general inflation slow down.</p> <p>This is important to understand because when you think we hit a bottom, we are already 10/15% above it.</p> <p>So keep an eye out for the job market, signs of less job offers, less people willing to leave X job for Y , companies paying less etc.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8kulfedss2s91.png?width=835&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b9030a71d4c70262b662473366a8333548bf51">WIth this graphic we can see job offers are on a small decline. When it hits a dip, FED-Pivot will happen and make econmy bullish in response. You can use the website and look for specific dates (2008) and see a good correlation of a bear job offer market, a pivot happening and a bullish market right after.</a></p> <p>Regarding <strong>inflation</strong>, if you look for results around the world there is a clear sign of a SMALL dip, showing inflation is going down VERY slowly, pair this with low job offers/wages (people not having much buying power) and FED lowering interes rates , they will probabily do what they done many times, hit that <strong>print money</strong> buttom > Booming economy.</p> <p>This will cause the dollar to be weaker too.</p> <p>Of course nothing is 100%, and we don't know what will happens at 13th October but have FIAT ready and if we have a bull run at the begning of 2023, don't be surprised.</p> <p>Safe investing yall.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/FldLima"> /u/FldLima </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>
<table> <tr><td> <a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/"> <img src="https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/S67DrCZiYaPqiv14o7O-qEZ12Q2Fm5Raq7PjS36iLnE.jpg" alt="Signs of a eventual bull run (it might be closer than you think)" title="Signs of a eventual bull run (it might be closer than you think)" /> </a> </td><td> <!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>We know the market enjoys pricing in before major events (as it tends to happens before a FED meeting).</p> <p>FED's president said if they raise interest rates to <strong>1%</strong> it can reduce developed countries GDP by 0,5% and under developed countries by 0.8%. USA had a increase on interest rates from 0% to 3,25% in 8 months.</p> <p><strong>Why this is important?</strong></p> <p>Because it can give us signs that we are approaching a real market bottom and we might see a recovery in 2023.</p> <p>John Williams (president and chief executive officers at FED) said he wants to keep inflation rate at <strong>2%</strong> in upcomming years, down from the expected 3% 2023.</p> <p>To make it a reality, they need to keep increasing interest rates until those numbers are met. and knowing this, the market tend to price it in.</p> <p>John also said that unemployment rate will increase from current <strong>3,7%</strong> to <strong>4,5%</strong> by the end of 2023.</p> <p><strong>FIRST</strong> sign that is a strong indicator of market bottom is <strong>wage inflation</strong>, what does it mean?</p> <p>After the pandemy we had a lot of job offers and lets say you worked at company A for 1k wage but company B is paying 2k, you would swap ofc. This is a good thing right? Yes and no. Let's understand it.</p> <p>If wage inflation is, let's say, 10% and general inflation is 7%, it will reduce the company's profit margim because if they have to pay more in order to remain competitive, they will also have to increase products price (but they also have a limit because if they incease too much, clients won't be able to pay for it) to make profit and customers will have to pay more and it's a god damn snowball that nobody benefits.</p> <p>This can't happen, it needs to be balanced. That's where the <strong>bottom of the market</strong> is.</p> <p><strong>SECOND</strong> sign is <strong>FED-Pivot</strong> and what i means is when FED change their politcs and instead of increasing interest rates, they <strong>lower</strong> them, let's take a look.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/na5mg517r2s91.png?width=690&format=png&auto=webp&s=11343b1dc218d233bfa8ebe344ae0a9bbda9efbb">As you can see, when interest rates are too high, a fed-pivot happens and it hits a bottom \"right after\".</a></p> <p><strong>When will this pivot thing happens?</strong></p> <p>When job offers reach a balance 1:1 (one job offer for one person and not 2 job offers for one person), the wage inflation and general inflation slow down.</p> <p>This is important to understand because when you think we hit a bottom, we are already 10/15% above it.</p> <p>So keep an eye out for the job market, signs of less job offers, less people willing to leave X job for Y , companies paying less etc.</p> <p><a href="https://preview.redd.it/8kulfedss2s91.png?width=835&format=png&auto=webp&s=21b9030a71d4c70262b662473366a8333548bf51">WIth this graphic we can see job offers are on a small decline. When it hits a dip, FED-Pivot will happen and make econmy bullish in response. You can use the website and look for specific dates (2008) and see a good correlation of a bear job offer market, a pivot happening and a bullish market right after.</a></p> <p>Regarding <strong>inflation</strong>, if you look for results around the world there is a clear sign of a SMALL dip, showing inflation is going down VERY slowly, pair this with low job offers/wages (people not having much buying power) and FED lowering interes rates , they will probabily do what they done many times, hit that <strong>print money</strong> buttom > Booming economy.</p> <p>This will cause the dollar to be weaker too.</p> <p>Of course nothing is 100%, and we don't know what will happens at 13th October but have FIAT ready and if we have a bull run at the begning of 2023, don't be surprised.</p> <p>Safe investing yall.</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/FldLima"> /u/FldLima </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/xwqqr6/signs_of_a_eventual_bull_run_it_might_be_closer/">[comments]</a></span> </td></tr></table>