02-02-2023, 06:20 AM
Will the EV market implode --consequences for investors?
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Many analysts have insisted that EVs are the future, that car manufacturers like GM, Ford, and Toyota need to do more to move into this space. But from what I see in the data, this entire sector could easily implode within 2-3 years, and simply doesn't have a future in the US. Why?</p> <ol> <li>China produces close to 60% of all EV batteries--the US has virtually no domestic construction of these devices</li> <li>The DRC accounts for 70% of all Cobalt mining, and that country is in the Chinese sphere-of-influence (they joined the belt-and-road initiative).</li> <li>The US does not have any meaningful source of Colbalt, Lithium, or other elements needed for the manufacture of batteries. It depends entirely on imports</li> </ol> <p>and then we have other factors:</p> <ol> <li>EVs are scarce due to supply-line issues, manufacturing capacity, and logistics. There are very few available from any brand within 100 miles of where I live</li> <li>The price of EVs is going up, not down, and dealerships are routinely slapping 15-20% markups over MSRP for these vehicles, outraging consumers</li> <li>Outside of Tesla's charging network, other networks are plagued with reliability problems, and implementation has largely stalled.</li> <li>The US electrical grid, in many areas, simply cannot support widespread EV adoption</li> <li>With rising interest rates, recession looming, and a weak economy, the average consumer is in no position to shell out $55,000 - $80,000 for an EV</li> </ol> <p>The math doesn't work anywhere here. A hostile power controls the import and manufacture of the components necessary to build these things, they are too expensive, and the grid won't support them.</p> <p>Goin forward, I am going to look at shorting the stocks of any car manufacturer who is heavily investing in EVs, and the more money they throw at them, the more attractive a short they become.</p> <p>This whole thing is going to implode with tens of billions in write-downs and widespread plant-closures. Am I wrong?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Skadi793"> /u/Skadi793 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/10qxmys/will_the_ev_market_implode_consequences_for/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/10qxmys/will_the_ev_market_implode_consequences_for/">[comments]</a></span>
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>Many analysts have insisted that EVs are the future, that car manufacturers like GM, Ford, and Toyota need to do more to move into this space. But from what I see in the data, this entire sector could easily implode within 2-3 years, and simply doesn't have a future in the US. Why?</p> <ol> <li>China produces close to 60% of all EV batteries--the US has virtually no domestic construction of these devices</li> <li>The DRC accounts for 70% of all Cobalt mining, and that country is in the Chinese sphere-of-influence (they joined the belt-and-road initiative).</li> <li>The US does not have any meaningful source of Colbalt, Lithium, or other elements needed for the manufacture of batteries. It depends entirely on imports</li> </ol> <p>and then we have other factors:</p> <ol> <li>EVs are scarce due to supply-line issues, manufacturing capacity, and logistics. There are very few available from any brand within 100 miles of where I live</li> <li>The price of EVs is going up, not down, and dealerships are routinely slapping 15-20% markups over MSRP for these vehicles, outraging consumers</li> <li>Outside of Tesla's charging network, other networks are plagued with reliability problems, and implementation has largely stalled.</li> <li>The US electrical grid, in many areas, simply cannot support widespread EV adoption</li> <li>With rising interest rates, recession looming, and a weak economy, the average consumer is in no position to shell out $55,000 - $80,000 for an EV</li> </ol> <p>The math doesn't work anywhere here. A hostile power controls the import and manufacture of the components necessary to build these things, they are too expensive, and the grid won't support them.</p> <p>Goin forward, I am going to look at shorting the stocks of any car manufacturer who is heavily investing in EVs, and the more money they throw at them, the more attractive a short they become.</p> <p>This whole thing is going to implode with tens of billions in write-downs and widespread plant-closures. Am I wrong?</p> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/Skadi793"> /u/Skadi793 </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/10qxmys/will_the_ev_market_implode_consequences_for/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/10qxmys/will_the_ev_market_implode_consequences_for/">[comments]</a></span>