08-31-2022, 10:03 PM
Does the market tend to be up on the 1st and 15th?
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>background: I always have the news on for background noise while working. This year I've taken note on the days my auto-invest falls on, the news says the market is rallying which makes me go "dammit why is it gonna close higher today" I buy index funds so I can only buy once a day after close.</p> <p>----</p> <p>So I am wondering</p> <ol> <li>Does the market go up 1st and 15th of the month (when paycheck arrives, but could be another popular pay schedule)</li> <li>If so, what's the cause <ol> <li>Large collective of people auto-investing on the same schedule (ex: 1st and 15th) driving up asking price, or</li> <li>Big institutions with knowledge of the pattern already exploiting it</li> </ol></li> </ol> <p>​</p> <p>I looked at the daily S&P closing price for 2022</p> <p>If the 1st or 15th fell on a weekend, I looked up the previous market close</p> <p>From 16 observations, 11 showed a higher close than previous day</p> <p>​</p> <table><thead> <tr> <th align="left">Date</th> <th align="left">Change in close</th> </tr> </thead><tbody> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 08/12/22 - Monday 08/15/22</td> <td align="left">16.99</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 07/29/22 - Monday 08/01/22</td> <td align="left">-11.66</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 07/14/22 - Friday 07/15/22</td> <td align="left">72.78</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 06/30/22 - Friday 07/01/22</td> <td align="left">39.95</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Tuesday 06/14/22 - Wednesday 06/15/22</td> <td align="left">54.51</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Tuesday 05/31/22 - Wednesday 06/01/22</td> <td align="left">-30.92</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 05/12/22 - Friday 05/13/22</td> <td align="left">93.81</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 04/29/22 - Monday 05/02/22</td> <td align="left">23.45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Wednesday 04/13/22 - Thursday 04/14/22</td> <td align="left">-54</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 03/31/22 - Friday 04/01/22</td> <td align="left">15.45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 03/14/22 - Tuesday 03/15/22</td> <td align="left">89.34</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 02/28/22 - Tuesday 03/01/22</td> <td align="left">-67.68</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 02/14/22 - Tuesday 02/15/22</td> <td align="left">69.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 01/31/22 - Tuesday 02/01/22</td> <td align="left">30.99</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 01/13/22 - Friday 01/14/22</td> <td align="left">3.82</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 12/30/21 - Friday 12/31/21</td> <td align="left">-12.55</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/gekigangerii"> /u/gekigangerii </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/x23j3g/does_the_market_tend_to_be_up_on_the_1st_and_15th/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/x23j3g/does_the_market_tend_to_be_up_on_the_1st_and_15th/">[comments]</a></span>
<!-- SC_OFF --><div class="md"><p>background: I always have the news on for background noise while working. This year I've taken note on the days my auto-invest falls on, the news says the market is rallying which makes me go "dammit why is it gonna close higher today" I buy index funds so I can only buy once a day after close.</p> <p>----</p> <p>So I am wondering</p> <ol> <li>Does the market go up 1st and 15th of the month (when paycheck arrives, but could be another popular pay schedule)</li> <li>If so, what's the cause <ol> <li>Large collective of people auto-investing on the same schedule (ex: 1st and 15th) driving up asking price, or</li> <li>Big institutions with knowledge of the pattern already exploiting it</li> </ol></li> </ol> <p>​</p> <p>I looked at the daily S&P closing price for 2022</p> <p>If the 1st or 15th fell on a weekend, I looked up the previous market close</p> <p>From 16 observations, 11 showed a higher close than previous day</p> <p>​</p> <table><thead> <tr> <th align="left">Date</th> <th align="left">Change in close</th> </tr> </thead><tbody> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 08/12/22 - Monday 08/15/22</td> <td align="left">16.99</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 07/29/22 - Monday 08/01/22</td> <td align="left">-11.66</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 07/14/22 - Friday 07/15/22</td> <td align="left">72.78</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 06/30/22 - Friday 07/01/22</td> <td align="left">39.95</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Tuesday 06/14/22 - Wednesday 06/15/22</td> <td align="left">54.51</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Tuesday 05/31/22 - Wednesday 06/01/22</td> <td align="left">-30.92</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 05/12/22 - Friday 05/13/22</td> <td align="left">93.81</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Friday 04/29/22 - Monday 05/02/22</td> <td align="left">23.45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Wednesday 04/13/22 - Thursday 04/14/22</td> <td align="left">-54</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 03/31/22 - Friday 04/01/22</td> <td align="left">15.45</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 03/14/22 - Tuesday 03/15/22</td> <td align="left">89.34</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 02/28/22 - Tuesday 03/01/22</td> <td align="left">-67.68</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 02/14/22 - Tuesday 02/15/22</td> <td align="left">69.4</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Monday 01/31/22 - Tuesday 02/01/22</td> <td align="left">30.99</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 01/13/22 - Friday 01/14/22</td> <td align="left">3.82</td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left">Thursday 12/30/21 - Friday 12/31/21</td> <td align="left">-12.55</td> </tr> </tbody></table> </div><!-- SC_ON --> submitted by <a href="https://www.reddit.com/user/gekigangerii"> /u/gekigangerii </a> <br/> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/x23j3g/does_the_market_tend_to_be_up_on_the_1st_and_15th/">[link]</a></span> <span><a href="https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/x23j3g/does_the_market_tend_to_be_up_on_the_1st_and_15th/">[comments]</a></span>